Women are outnumbered by men by roughly five to one in the House, so there is no such thing as a helpful "women's card" in U.S. politics.
When Chicago housing projects were demolished, the families in them essentially “won” a lottery (they were offered a housing voucher to help them pay the rent when they moved out of the projects). The demolitions had very large positive effects on the children who were forced to move out.
Despite a surprise win in Michigan for Bernie Sanders, Mrs. Clinton's chance to win the nomination remains above 90 percent.
Mr. Trump appears has a solid lead in Google searches in most states.
More people are searching for “Donald Drumpf” online than for Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.
A simple count of the total number of searches has tracked early Republican results with impressive accuracy. However, the sample of elections is small, and it is too early to know whether Google Trends is as good at now-casting as it seems.
An economic analysis of the Sanders plan has a flaw at its heart. It assumes that, when stimulus is withdrawn, output doesn't fall.
It remains to be seen whether skeletons are hidden in Donald Trump's tax returns, but prediction markets are better than our imperfect judgments even when candidates are avoiding transparency.
Mr. Christie’s endorsement of Mr. Trump raised his odds of being the Republican nominee for vice president and also led bettors to revise their views about frontrunner’s odds of winning the Republican nomination.
After the Iowa caucus, the main beneficiary was Marco Rubio rather than Ted Cruz, the caucus winner.
Prediction market traders see a four-horse race and Mr. Trump is viewed as the clear favorite.
Male and female economists are given roughly equal credit for work they perform alone. For collaborative projects, women receive far less credit.
Mr. Trump's candidacy can be viewed as an effort to fuel the hunger for authenticity.
Even if they are leading authorities in their fields, female economists are often referred to as uncredentialed co-authors. Some journalists also reverse author ordering – and these careless mistakes accumulate over time.
The recent uptick in wage growth could justify an interest rate hike, but with hundreds of thousands of part-timers still unable to find full-time work, the labor market is probably still not overheating.
Despite Mr. Bush’s numerous advantages, betting markets no longer rate him as the most likely GOP candidate to be nominated for general elections.
With 126 U.N.-designated International Days celebrated this year, the World Statistics Day is more important than at least three-fifths of all other days.
The latest Nobel Prize winner is an economist who is focused on big-picture questions and, at the same time, remains focused on smaller details - and development economics has been transformed thanks to his vast contributions.
John Boehner’s resignation has lowered the likelihood that House Republicans will force a government shutdown.
Government agencies are now testing their ideas. In the process, the delivery of public services can become simpler and more efficient.
Carly Fiorina is expected to shine in the upcoming presidential debate, while Ben Carson is expected to do poorly, according to prediction markets.
If you check the performance of your portfolio every day, you are more likely to lose sight of the long-run gains in the stock market.
If baseball players are as likely to be gay as other men their age then the odds that none of these men are gay is one in two sextillion.
Are broken relationships comparable to a natural (or economic) disaster? We make up some numbers to look at the impact of the hack.
Jeb Bush remains a favorite, suggesting that his performance in the debate did not really matter.
When justifying who would be included in the main GOP debate, Fox said that in considered the probabilities of the underlying state of public opinion. But that is not what the polls show.
The share of online job searches in Greece that are directed abroad has more than doubled, suggesting that many Greeks want to exit their country.
For the first time in forever — or at least in over a century — Elsa has become a popular name in the United States.
An agreement with creditors remains the more likely outcome in the Greek referendum - but "no" still has a one-in-three chance of success.
Markets did not react when the road to a trade agreement became tougher. Either companies do not benefit from freer trade as much as some believe, or the trade agreement will eventually be approved.
The market believes that Mr. Trump is for real this time.
Even when a candidate is pretending that he is not actually running for president, he has not fooled the betting market.
Given the discrepancy between gross domestic income and the spending-based GDP, it is possible that the economy actually grew in the first quarter of this year.
Even if dads are, on average, slightly heavier than men without children, we can’t definitively say that the dad bod is a consequence, rather than a cause, of fatherhood.
Some Fed economists say that GDP data does not suffer from problems with seasonal adjustment - others suggest that seasonally adjusting each of the component series that go into calculating gross domestic product may not be enough.
Political prediction markets tell us that the elections in Britain will be close, but Mr. Cameron is a slight favorite.
Convincing research shows that places where children grow up do matter - the evidence is growing, so the effects on children's outcomes are real.
The government’s statistical agencies are supposed to adjust for predictable seasonal swings - but my calculations suggest that they may have failed to do so for three decades.
Prime-age black men are outnumbered by women only in those areas where a large share of the population is black. In places with low black populations, black men tend to outnumber black women, often by a lot.
For every 100 black women not in jail, there are only 83 black men. This gap – driven mostly by incarceration and early deaths – barely exists among whites.
Contrary to the perceptions of some people, Duke’s players have higher graduation rates than members of the Wisconsin men basketball team.
An array of economic indicators, including an index that aggregates macroeconomic surprises (deviations from forecasts) shows that economists needs to revisit their earlier optimism.
The widely reported study simply showed that children's outcomes are not closely related to an unreliable measure of parenting time.
The latest claim that time spent with children doesn't matter relies on inadequate data. Misleading research should not be a guide to parental time allocation.
The published claim that all Wall Street bonuses last year amounted to roughly double the total earnings of all Americans who work full time at the federal minimum wage turns out to be a fair characterization.
Which schools have the most effective basketball fans? We looked at the free throw numbers to find out.
Traders who reveal their opinions through buying and selling inflation options believe that deflation is a greater risk than high inflation.
The ratio of the number of men named James, Robert, John or William to the number of women is typically larger than one in business, academia, and in some areas of politics.
Creative fans can make a difference. Data proves that the "curtain of distraction" has been helping Arizona State's basketball team.
- Today Show
You shouldn’t adjust your exercise routine based on unreliable studies. Intense running is not “as bad as sitting on the couch,” no matter what some headlines have claimed.
What seems like a wrongheaded call at first sight actually reflects the fact that seemingly disadvantageous moves sometimes ought to be made – you need to keep your enemy guessing.
Super Bowl XLIX is unusual because the teams are truly evenly matched. (And that means that you could make money by betting against your overconfident colleagues.)
The richest 80 people in the world own as much wealth as the poorest half of the entire planet - a brilliant talking point but it just reflects that billions of people have no wealth.
Not only have the gains from the economic recovery not been evenly distributed, but average income for the "bottom" 99 percent fell by $100.
Social scientists now increasingly show up in the pages of the New York Times. But economists saw the greatest surge since 1960.
Unemployment is apparently not yet near its natural rate, so we can still put a lot more people to work.
Education is one of the drivers of economic growth, and it is also a good investment making the middle class stronger.
To design good policies, we need to study the trends in family life but we are losing data sources.
One thing we can say ahead of 2015: we should be prepared to be surprised.
Many data sources tell us that the divorce rate is decreasing. It is unlikely that they are all wrong.
Almost everyone believes in charts, but only some people trust the same information in a textual form. Here, I summarize a study that showed this (using a chart, of course!).
Workers show their confidence in the labor market when they are willing to quit their jobs.
If we combine different sources of data, job growth has been even healthier than the survey of firms suggests.
Don't probe voters' intentions only. Asking voters about their expectations yields more accurate election forecasts.
Despite the consensus that the GOP will take control of the Senate, that outcome is not certain. Predicting the unlikely event can be a profitable strategy.
Selective reading of the evidence is human. And NYT readers are also human. (This article describes the Upshot’s election forecasting model.)
When the Fed stops buying assets, that is not monetary tightening. The central bank continues to aim for low long-term interest rates.
When prediction markets and other models agree, an electoral victory of the GOP is very likely.
While voters may be perceiving economic conditions differently, recorded unemployment has never fallen this fast in a midterm election cycle.
More than 50% of leading economists say they read Thomas Piketty's book.
Leading economists do not generally believe that Piketty has identified the most powerful force affecting wealth inequality in the United States.
Mr. Tirole's work sheds light on many types of markets, and his articles will continue to inspire. His latest recognition is well-earned.
Data tells us more than a list of gaffes. Our predictions are better when we pay attention to fundamentals.
The deficit is now smaller than its average over the past 40 years.
Wage growth seems to be no longer linked to labor market conditions.
Competition is good for consumers -- and car services are not different from other markets.
Runners keep breaking records. Within a decade or two, a stunning milestone may be reached.
A nearly 5 percent GDP growth rate is misleading. We should not focus on a single quarter, nor on a single indicator of economic performance.
Right now, Mitt Romney is the fifth most likely Republican to win the 2016 GOP nomination.
Most polls claimed that the referendum on independence would be close. But prediction markets correctly signaled the likely failure of the referendum.
Crime rates are dropping, but many readers are terrified by individual stories that skew our perceptions and make us fearful.
Are polls good at tracing changes in public opinion over short horizons? Probably not.
Italy’s triple-dip recession provides a sobering perspective on the U.S. recovery.
Can we take seriously the grumbles about “no willing workers”?
The economy was able to withstand the European debt crisis, the earthquake in Japan, as well as the debt ceiling debacle. Private expenditures in particular tell a hopeful story.
Is the impact of the stimulus plan contested? Actually, most economists believe that the stimulus bill reduced unemployment, and that its benefits exceeded its costs.
The notion that the unemployed will simply “look harder for work” if benefits are taken away from them does not stand up to scrutiny. Let's avoid learning any "lessons" based on noisy, state-level data.
Explains how official state-level unemployment rates are calculated.
When one US state sentences over 900 people to death in the last four decades, and then executes 13 of them, what does it tell us about the system?
Soccer superpowers have dominated the World Cup this year. In the latest stages of the competition, however, making predictions becomes more challenging.
In recent years, we heard a lot about a “jobless recovery.” But right now, we are witnessing a drop in the unemployment rate that is remarkable, given the moderate speed at which the gross domestic product is growing.
The approval rate of Congress stands at 7%. That is a historic low. And yet, a vast majority of incumbents is consistently reelected.
There is no consensus about the impact of minimum wages on employment. Pundits should not mock or punish those who admit their uncertainty.
A surprisingly large fraction of Australians believe that their team will win the World Cup. The optimism might reflect the vivid memories of the 2006 World Cup.
For 51 months in a row, the private sector has created jobs. And the total number of jobs has climbed back after the recession. This was an awful downturn, but the damage is finally repaired.
Sometimes, GDP growth will look weak to due to one-off factors. Use unadjusted and unrevised data in your prediction models at your own risk.
The quality of data on wealth may be debated, but we have a good sense of what has happened to income. Nobody can really dispute the rising income shares going to the top 1 percent.
One metric that economists use to understand the labor market appears to say that, after the Great Recession, the market got worse at matching workers with vacant jobs. But it is still possible that the recession has not done lasting damage.
People used to say that topics like discrimination, crime, family or social interactions were “noneconomic.” Gary Becker single-handedly changed that.
Is the economy creating too many “bad jobs?” The high-wage vs. low-wage classification of industries can be misleading.
In states like Massachusetts, New York and Connecticut, Internet users are more interested in Piketty’s findings than in California. The level of interest can be better explained by average income than by ideology.
In Boston, we again saw evidence that goals, no matter their origin, motivate people to perform.
When running a marathon, many runners are willing to suffer, just to reach their goal (often a round number). But should you also insist on meeting your original goals when you trade? (Hint: it's surprisingly costly!)
Fact-checks the notion that the recent recession dramatically changed marriage trends.
Finds strong hints in Roger Clemens' career statistics pointing to steroid use.
Debunks the widely-held view that divorce rates are rising. In fact, marital stability has been rising since the 1970s.
Suggests a new gambling policy that may minimize corruption and help compulsive gamblers.
Threatened labor disruptions in baseball endangered the post-season and showed the true motivations of the players. Against this benchmark, the players involved in the Australian rugby league scandals look good.
Describes the key contributions of our latest Nobel Laureates, Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, and Lars Peter Hansen.
Describes Janet Yellen as more qualified for her new Fed Chair job than any of her predecessors
Shows that the bond market appears relatively unperturbed by whether the next Fed Chair will be Summers, Yellen or Kohn
Describes how mis-steps in the Fed's communications policy has led financial markets to misread their intentions
Asks whether Fed announcements tell us more about the economy, or about the Fed.
Suggests that the lesson from recent scandals is the need for economics to develop a stronger culture of replication.
Provides a guide for non-specialists interested in understanding statistical studies.
Assesses what we know about the relationship between public debt and economic growth.
Reviews various inflation forecasts, finding that Paul Ryan's fears of "debasement of the currency" are extreme.
Presents data on the incidence of love around the world.
Assesses the role of love in economic life
Reviews a recent study by Hoxby and Avery, showing that smart working class kids aren't applying to good colleges.
Argues for fundamental tax reform.
Highlights the accuracy of my election forecasts based on asking people who they think would win, rather than standard polling questions.
Calculates the distributional consequences of Romney's tax platform
Describes changes in American family life over recent decades.
Notes that bond markets tend to react to the election of Republicans with higher bond yields.
Points out that Romney's revenue-neutral plan to broaden the tax base and lower rates is not a tax cut, on net.
Provides evidence that yes, the economy is better than it was four years ago.
Makes the case that economics is in the midst of an empirical revolution, driven by new data sources and computing power.
Shows that there exists a consensus among mainstream economists on many important policy topics
Argues that Fed credibility has been undermined by persistently undershootings its inflation target
Argues that Title IX has fundamentally transformed sports opportunities for girls, with far-reaching social and economic consequences
Argues that existing estimates of the deterrent effect of the death penalty are uninformative.
Compiles evidence on just how costly the recent debt ceiling impasse was.
Describes changing generational attitudes to same-sex marriage as reflecting changes in marriage itself.
Describes how work-sharing can help reduce unemployment.
Argues that tax expenditures should be replaced with explicit subsidies.
Argues policy should be set with an eye to the range of likely forecast errors.
Summarizes research showing the effectiveness of the Tea Party movement.
Describes the implications of different types of Fed forward guidance
Wall Street Journal
An early appreciation of poll aggregation.
Election-eve assessment of the key political trends.
Suggests that Obama is the prohibitive favorite to win the 2008 election.
Assesses the extent to which prediction market prices may have been distorted by market manipulation.
Attempts to make sense of conflicting signals from various prediction markets.
Assesses recent movements in the Vice-Presidential prediction markets.
How to assess a 6 point polling lead, 4 months before the election. It's closer than you think.
Compares the election forecasts from a leading econometric model, in order to better understand what is driving prediction market prices.
Even as Obama and Clinton traded primary victories, the markets awarded the declare Obama the victor and the likely Democratic nominee.
Interprets the implications of the Democratic Pennsylvania primary. Our verdict: It's a draw.
Previewing the Ohio and Texas primaries.
Assesses what prediction markets can tell us about the VP.
A Super Tuesday preview, and viewer's guide.
Political markets suggest that Edwards supporters will shift to supporting Barack Obama.
Prediction markets suggest that Giuliani's problems in the GOP nomination race are due to poor campaigning, rather than a poor strategy.
Suggests that Clinton's victory in the New Hampshire primary was more surprising than Truman beating Dewey in 1948.
Assesses evidence of momentum effects subsequent to the Iowa caucuses.
Provides a market-based baseline against which to assess the Iowa caucus results.
How to use prediction markets to track the 2008 presidential race.
Analyzes likely economic and financial consequences of the 2006 midterm congressional elections.
(Produced by American Public Media and broadcast on National Public Radio)
It's important to distinguish between levels and changes - the economy can be weak, but improving.
Argues that student loan forgiveness is a poor form of fiscal stimulus.Listen here or download mp3
Discussing the prospects for a decrease in unemployment considering Okun's Law.Listen here or download mp3
Discussing the costs of running and why it makes economic sense.Listen here or download mp3
Despite the improvement in unemployment numbers, there is still the issue of long-term unemployment.Listen here or download mp3
Who's wrong? Democrats or Republicans? Both?Listen here or download mp3
A simple way to estimate future oil prices.Listen here or download mp3
Argues that recent concerns about high gas prices may be misplaced.Listen here or download mp3
Analyzing the income measure of GDP shows the recession began earlier than previously thought.Listen here or download mp3
Discussing recent research on the performance of economic forecasting models.Listen here or download mp3
Discussing how GDP is a good indicator of a country's well being.Listen here or download mp3
Why the economy needs another stimulus package.Listen here or download mp3
A few suggestions on what history might title our current recession.Listen here or download mp3
Discusses the political rhetoric of citing rising or falling incomes.Listen here or download mp3
How the Supreme Court misread our research on the effects of capital punishment. See more here.
The Ithaca Journal, May 31, 2007
Discusses the broader context of our study on racial bias in NBA refereeing.
Defends the controversial DARPA prediction markets, arguing that prediction markets can provide useful information and help us better understand geopolitical risks.
Assesses the likelihood of economic recovery.
Provides a digestible introduction to prediction markets, with an Australian emphasis.
Australian Financial Review, August 13, 2005
Presents evidence that surveys of subjective well-being have consistently ranked Australia to be one of the happiest nations in the world.
Argues that recent proposals to reform unfair dismissal laws in Australia are unlikely to have much of an effect on the overall unemployment rate, although it might reduce the extent of long-term unemployment.
Comparing the election turnout in Iraq with expectations embodied in Tradesports prices suggests that turnout was as expected.
Suggests that pollsters take their margin of error seriously, and report their polling results as the likelihood that their candidate win the election.
Australian Financial Review, December 19, 2003
Early market moves suggest that the Labor Party pulled the right reign in elevating Mark Latham to the leadership.
Reviews evidence on the effects of no-fault divorce laws on domestic violence and divorce rates and concludes that Australia should resist a show-fault system.
Argues the case for evidence-based policymaking - specifically for a wider use of policy trials.
We argue that the RBA must police its inflation target symmetrically. If the public merely believe that the target is below three percent, then the threat of deflation can be significant.
Canberra Times, November 5, 2002
Discusses the likelihood of state governorships changing hands after the elections.
Reviews recent research by Ed Glaeser, arguing that terrorism can be analyzed with economic tools.
If the global war on terror is truly global, surely we care as much about Australians killed in the Bali bombing as Americans killed on September 11.
Reviews the evidence on parenting classes, and argues that the recent Australian policy proposals are misguided.
Statistics show that the salary cap has failed to level the playing field and is therefore open to a legal challenge.
Analyzes the (unintended?) consequences of the Howard government's so-called Baby Bonus.
Argues that there is insufficient evidence on the success of smaller class sizes to support across-the-board cuts in student-teacher ratios in Australian schools.
Argues that the size of a city's gay population is a reliable indicator of city quality.
Assesses the argument that the US recession is over, and speculates on the new business cycle in both the US and Australia.
Sydney Morning Herald, November 1, 2001
Speculates on the implications of the US recession for Australia.
Sydney Morning Herald, October 12, 2001
Reviews the profound contributions of our three latest Nobel Laureates - Akerlof, Spence and Stiglitz.
Analyzes the forecasts of three possible tools for predicting the 2001 Australian Federal Election: opinion polls, economic indicators and gambling odds.
Sydney Morning Herald, May 15, 2001
Reviews Duggan and Levitt's findings that Sumo wrestling is fraught with corruption, and discusses the implications for recent cricket scandals.
Discusses Katz and Krueger's analysis of the US employment miracle.
Argues that the market for economic policy advice in Australia needs to be deregulated.
Sydney Morning Herald, December 13, 1999
Argues that current university admissions procedures are inequitable.
Reviews Donohue and Levitt's argument that there is a causal link between Roe v. Wade and the recent decline in crime.
Discusses research on female happiness.
Selected recent interviews
- Explaining love
- The life of the number-crunching analyst
- Economics and Open Marriage
- Is higher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility?
- Operation Twist 101
- Forgive Student Loans? Worst Idea Ever.
- A postcard from Brookings: Bidding DC a Fond Farewell
- An economist's twitter experiment begins
- Income = happiness? A strangely tough sell in Aspen
- Why economics falls down in the face of fatherhood
- What drives obesity?
- Are kids normal or inferior goods?
- The least radical case for hapiness economics
- How to spot advocacy science
- The old money-and-happiness riddle
- Mistrust and the great recession
- Debunking the Easterlin Paradox, Again
- What I learned while running the NY marathon
- Detecting political momentum is harder than you think
- What is going on with marriage?
- The Black-White Happiness gap: Large, but narrowing
- Are economists influential enough?
- Hayek propped up by government intervention
- Cats and Dogs, Donkeys and Elephants
- Disequilibrium in the market for economics reporting?
- The fundamental forces of supply and demand
- Uncertainty and the Fed
- Nickled and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich
- Why supply and demand are hard to measure
- What does the human development index measure?
- Divorce and the business cycle
- On the failure of macroeconomists
- Is happiness contagious?
- Assessing your divorce risk
- A beet paradox
- Usain Bolt: It's just not normal
- Have economics debates changed since 1977?
- The Economics of Happiness, Part 6: Delving Into Subjective Well-Being
- The Economics of Happiness, Part 5: Will Raising the Incomes of All Raise the Happiness of All?
- The Economics of Happiness, Part 4: Are Rich People Happier than Poor People?
- The Economics of Happiness, Part 3: Historical Evidence
- The Economics of Happiness, Part 2: Are Rich Countries Happier than Poor Countries?
- The Economics of Happiness, Part 1: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox
- The fiscal costs of marriage and divorce
- Where have all the macroeconomists gone?
- Nominal illusion: A mistake or a choice?
- Yes, it's a recession
- Analyzing Roger Clemens
- Economics and New Year's Resolutions