November 6, 2002

 
Bet you can't pick a winner.
by Sarah Henderson
 
THE Melbourne Cup is the race that stops the nation. And yesterday, there was no greater example
than the emotionally charged win by Damien Oliver.

But to my mind, another fascinating race is now under way. A race that will at the very least make
Victorians stand up and take notice when the contenders reach the finish line on 30 November. Bracks
 versus Doyle. Ah yes, the old two-horse race. The best kind.

And if you backed Opposition Leader Robert Doyle two days ago, you would have secured yourself
some fairly handsome odds.

When the election was called on Monday afternoon, the country's biggest on-line sports betting agency,
 Centrebet, was offering odds of $1.06 that Steve Bracks would remain Premier of Victoria and a hefty
$7 for a win by Robert Doyle.

By yesterday afternoon, the apparent rank outsider was suddenly looking more of a chance. A betting
plunge on Doyle had reduced his odds to $4.75 with the short-priced favorite settling at $1.15.

So what's this got to do the outcome of the election?

Well quite a lot, according to Centrebet's Gerard Daffy, who believes voters are more likely to put their
 money where their vote is rather than tell all to the pollsters.

"Betting markets are more accurate than opinion polls when it comes to elections," Mr. Daffy said.

"Take Roy Morgan's latest findings. Does anyone think that Simon Crean would have beaten John Howard if
an Australian federal election had been held last month? He would have been a huge underdog."

Robert Doyle is certainly the underdog. But as any betting man or woman will tell you, if a week is a long time
in politics, 26 days of an election campaign is an eternity.

And when there is a TV debate in the wind, the outcome is anyone's guess.

In the recent German elections, the conservative challenger, Edmund Stoiber, started as slight favorite
against Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

After two TV debates, which the charismatic Schroeder won convincingly against the relatively dull Stoiber,
 the tables turned and Centrebet's books closed with Schroeder as the favorite.

The German Chancellor won the election, albeit narrowly. But he won all the same.

Centrebet also points to research by Australian Justin Wolfers, an assistant professor from Stanford
University in the US, who had worked for a bookmaker in his youth.

Wolfers found that in punting mad Australia, election-betting markets had proved to be remarkably accurate.

He concluded: "Particularly in marginal seats, the press might better serve by reporting betting odds rather
than by conducting polls."

For instance, in the last federal election, following the September 11 attacks in the US and the Tampa crisis,
 there was a major turnaround in the odds being offered on a win by John Howard.

According to Wolfers: "By election day an enormous amount of money had been pumped into the betting
 market. More money had been bet on the election than on the football grand final and Howard was the
favorite with odds of $1.55, suggesting a 64 per cent probability of his winning the election."

The rest is history. Howard won and Centrebet lost.

However, betting trends are not without fault. Take the last Victorian election when very few people
predicted a Kennett loss. Odds of $11 were being offered on a Bracks win, right up to Election Day.

THIS latest two-horse race has a long way to run. Many people still don't know who Robert Doyle is or
 what he stands for.

Significantly, there is still plenty of time for a turnaround, particularly if the Opposition Leader outclasses the
Premier in the TV debate. And that's a real possibility, given that Bracks often struggles to articulate his message.

So hang on to your hats. The race has just begun. And who knows? Maybe even at $4.75, Robert Doyle is a
 better than even chance.

SARAH HENDERSON is a lawyer and director of Kudos Management Group