NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

NBER Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets

Directed By: Martin Feldstein and Jeffrey Frankel

TURKEY

Jeffrey Frankel and Dani Rodrik, Program Organizers

July 18, 2001

Royal Sonesta Hotel

5 Cambridge Parkway

Cambridge, MA

PROGRAM

TUESDAY JULY 17 :

6:30 PM	RECEPTION AND DINNER

Henrietta's Table

Charles Hotel

One Bennett Street

WEDNESDAY JULY 18:

8:45 AM	CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

9:00 AM	OFFICIAL WELCOME

9:15 AM	BACKGROUND: UP TO 1999

Chairman:	JEFF FRANKEL, Harvard University and NBER

Panelists:	RUSDU SARACOGLU, former governor of Turkey's central bank

TED TRUMAN, Institute for International Economics,

former Federal Reserve Board and US Treasury

ERIK NIELSEN, Goldman Sachs

RUDI DORNBUSCH, MIT and NBER

11:00 AM	THE STABILIZATION PROGRAM AND THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME

Chairman:	DANI RODRIK, Harvard University and NBER

Panelists:	MAHFI EGILMEZ, former undersecy of Turkey's Treasury

CAROLINE ATKINSON, former US Treasury

GEORGE HOGUET, State Street Global Advisers

KASPER BARTHOLDY, Credit Suisse First Boston

CARLO COTTARELLI, International Monetary Fund

12:30 PM	LUNCH

1:45 PM	BANKING PROBLEMS, AND THE CRISIS OF FALL 2000

Chairman:	MIKE DOOLEY, UC, Santa Cruz and NBER

Panelists:	SELCUK DEMIRALP, former undersecretary of Turkey's Treasury

JOYCE CHANG, Chase Bank

WARREN COATS, International Monetary Fund

STEVE KAMIN, Federal Reserve Board

3:15 PM	BREAK

3:30 PM	THE CRISIS OF FEBRUARY 2001, AND WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Chairman:	MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER

Panelists:	GAZI ERCEL, former head of Turkey's central bank

STEVE RADELET, US Treasury

MICHAEL DEPPLER, International Monetary Fund

PETER GARBER, Deutschebank

5:00 PM	ADJOURN

BACKGROUND MATERIALS:

A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, 1980-2000

Faruk Selçuk and Ahmet Ertugrul February 2001

The OECD Economic Survey of Turkey January 2001

The Disinflation Program and the Structure of the Turkish Banking Sector

C. Alper, M. Berument and N. Malatyalý

Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey

Olcay Yucel Emir, Almila Karasoy, & Kursat Kunter,

Research Department of the Bank of Central Turkey

Turkey: Urgent need for large-scale foreign funding and/or domestic

insurance of dollar debt

K.Bartholdy & B.Bayazitoglu, Credit Suisse First Boston

Crunch Point: Turkey's Massive Debt, June 20, 2001

D.Malpass, T.Kearney, E.Shayo, Bear Stearns

Capital Inflows and Central Bank's Policy Response, December, 1998

M.Altinkemer, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

7/17/01