Institutional Affiliation: Yale University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2020||Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals|
with Myrto Kalouptsidi, Lucas Lima, Eduardo A. Souza-Rodrigues: w26761
We provide a general framework for investigating partial identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models and their counterfactuals, along with uniformly valid inference procedures. In doing so, we derive sharp bounds for the model parameters, counterfactual behavior, and low-dimensional outcomes of interest, such as the average welfare effects of hypothetical policy interventions. We char- acterize the properties of the sets analytically and show that when the target outcome of interest is a scalar, its identified set is an interval whose endpoints can be calculated by solving well-behaved constrained optimization problems via standard algorithms. We obtain a uniformly valid inference pro- cedure by an appropriate application of subsampling. To illustrate the performance and co...