University of Southern California
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Institutional Affiliation: University of Southern California
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|April 2020||Spending Less After (Seemingly) Bad News|
with Mark Garmaise, Hanno Lustig: w27010
We show that household consumption displays excess sensitivity to salient macro-economic news, even when the news is not real. When the announced local unemployment rate reaches a 12-month maximum, local consumers in that area reduce discretionary spending by 2% relative to consumers in areas with the same macro-economic fundamentals. The consumption of low-income households displays greater excess sensitivity to salience. The decrease in spending is not reversed in subsequent months; instead, negative news persistently reduces future spending for two to four months. Announcements of 12-month unemployment maximums also lead consumers to reduce their credit card repayments by 3.6%. Households in treated areas act as if they are more financially constrained than those in untreated areas with...
|February 2018||Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts|
with David Hirshleifer, Ben Lourie, Siew Hong Teoh: w24293
Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market und...
Published: David Hirshleifer & Yaron Levi & Ben Lourie & Siew Hong Teoh, 2019. "Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Financial Economics, . citation courtesy of