NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Xuehui Han

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
B9 Financial Street
Xicheng District
Beijing, 100033
China

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Institutional Affiliation: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2017Re-examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis (MITH): What to Reject and What to Revive?
with Shang-Jin Wei: w23126
Do middle-income countries face difficult challenges producing consistent growth? Using transition matrix analysis, we can easily reject any unconditional notion of a “middle-income trap” in the data. However, countries have different fundamentals and policies. Using a nonparametric classification technique, we search for variables that separate fast- and slow-growing countries. For middle-income countries, a relatively large working age population, sex ratio imbalance, macroeconomic stability, and financial development appear to be the key discriminatory variables. We do the same exercise for low-income countries. This framework yields conditions under which countries in the low- and middle-income ranges move forward or backward, or are trapped.

Published: Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2017. "Re-examining the middle-income trap hypothesis (MITH): What to reject and what to revive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 41-61. citation courtesy of

November 2016International Transmissions of Monetary Shocks: Between a Trilemma and a Dilemma
with Shang-Jin Wei: w22812
This paper re-examines international transmissions of monetary policy shocks from advanced economies to emerging market economies. In terms of methodologies, it combines three novel features. First, it separates co-movement in monetary policies due to common shocks from spillovers of monetary policies from advanced to peripheral economies. Second, it uses surprises in growth and inflation and the Taylor rule to gauge desired changes in a country’s interest rate if it is to focus exclusively on growth, inflation, and real exchange rate stability. Third, it proposes a specification that can work with the quantitative easing episodes when no changes in US interest rate are observed. In terms of empirical findings, we differ from the existing literature and document patterns of “2.5-lemma” or ...

Forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics citation courtesy of

 
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