NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Rhys Bidder

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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Tel: (415) 974-2530

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Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2016Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario
with Ian Dew-Becker: w22416
We study an investor who is unsure of the dynamics of the economy. Not only are parameters unknown, but the investor does not even know what order model to estimate. She estimates her consumption process nonparametrically – allowing potentially infinite-order dynamics – and prices assets using a pessimistic model that minimizes lifetime utility subject to a constraint on statistical plausibility. The equilibrium is exactly solvable and we show that the pricing model always includes long-run risks. With risk aversion of 4.7, the model matches major facts about asset prices, consumption, and dividends. The paper provides a novel link between ambiguity aversion and non-parametric estimation.

Published: Rhys Bidder & Ian Dew-Becker, 2016. "Long-Run Risk Is the Worst-Case Scenario," American Economic Review, vol 106(9), pages 2494-2527. citation courtesy of

 
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