NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

Pascal Towbin

Swiss National Bank
Bundesplatz 1
CH-3003 Berne
Switzerland

E-Mail: Pascal.Towbin@snb.ch
Institutional Affiliation: Swiss National Bank

NBER Working Papers and Publications

March 2019Expectations During the U.S. Housing Boom: Inferring Beliefs from Actions
with Itzhak Ben-David, Sebastian Weber: w25702
We infer the role of price expectations in forming the U.S. housing boom in the early- 2000s from examining housing inventories. We use a reduced form model to show that agents invest in vacant homes when they anticipate prices will increase. Empirically, vacancy can discriminate between price movements related to shocks to demand for housing services (low vacancy) and shocks to expectations (high vacancy). Using a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions, we show that expectation shocks were a prime factor explaining the boom particularly in the Sand States, which experienced unprecedented booms.
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us