Miguel A. Ferreira
Nova School of Business and Economics
Rua Holanda, 1
Institutional Affiliations: Nova School of Business and Economics and CEPR and ECGI
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2020||Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy|
with Manuel Adelino, Mariassunta Giannetti, Pedro Pires: w27077
We show that trade credit in production networks is important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. We find that firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries and extend more trade credit to their customers. The increase in trade credit flows is more pronounced from core countries to periphery countries and towards financially constrained customers. Customers increase investment and employment in response to the additional financing, while suppliers with eligible bonds increase their customer base, potentially favoring upstream industry concentration. Our findings suggest that the trade credit channel of monetary policy produces heterogeneous effects on regions, industries, and fi...
|December 2008||Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole|
with Pedro Santa-Clara: w14571
We propose forecasting separately the three components of stock market returns: dividend yield, earnings growth, and price-earnings ratio growth. We obtain out-of-sample R-square coefficients (relative to the historical mean) of nearly 1.6% with monthly data and 16.7% with yearly data using the most common predictors suggested in the literature. This compares with typically negative R-squares obtained in a similar experiment by Goyal and Welch (2008). An investor who timed the market with our approach would have had a certainty equivalent gain of as much as 2.3% per year and a Sharpe ratio 77% higher relative to the historical mean. We conclude that there is substantial predictability in equity returns and that it would have been possible to time the market in real time.
Published: Journal of Financial Economics Volume 100, Issue 3, June 2011, Pages 514–537 Cover image Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole ☆ Miguel A. Ferreiraa, b, Pedro Santa-Claraa, c, Corresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author citation courtesy of