University of Oxford
Institutional Affiliation: University of Oxford
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 2018||Making Policies Matter: Voter Responses to Campaign Promises|
with Cesi Cruz, Philip Keefer, Francesco Trebbi: w24785
Can campaign promises change voter behavior, even where clientelism and vote buying are pervasive? We elicit multidimensional campaign promises from political candidates in consecutive mayoral elections in the Philippines. Voters who are randomly informed about these promises rationally update their beliefs about candidates, along both policy and valence dimensions. Those who receive information about current promises are more likely to vote for candidates with policy promises closest to their own preferences. Those informed about current and past campaign promises reward incumbents who fulfilled their past promises; they perceive them to be more honest and competent. However, voters with clientelist ties to candidates respond weakly to campaign promises. A structural model allows us to di...
|January 2016||Using Split Samples to Improve Inference about Causal Effects|
with Marcel Fafchamps: w21842
We discuss a method aimed at reducing the risk that spurious results are published. Researchers send their datasets to an independent third party who randomly generates training and testing samples. Researchers perform their analysis on the former and once the paper is accepted for publication the method is applied to the latter and it is those results that are published. Simulations indicate that, under empirically relevant settings, the proposed method significantly reduces type I error and delivers adequate power. The method – that can be combined with pre-analysis plans – reduces the risk that relevant hypotheses are left untested.