Joshua L. Krieger
Harvard Business School
Institutional Affiliation: Harvard University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2018||Missing Novelty in Drug Development|
with Danielle Li, Dimitris Papanikolaou: w24595
This paper provides evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We define a drug candidate as novel if it is molecularly distinct from prior candidates. Using our measure, we show that firms face a risk-reward tradeoff when investing in novel drugs: while novel drug candidates are less likely to be approved by the FDA, they are based on patents with higher indicators of value. We show that–counter to the predictions of frictionless models–firms respond to a plausibly exogenous positive shock to their net worth by developing more of these riskier novel candidates. This pattern suggests that financial market imperfections may lead even large public firms to behave as though they are risk averse, therefore hindering their willingness to invest ...
|May 2015||The Career Effects of Scandal: Evidence from Scientific Retractions|
with Pierre Azoulay, Alessandro Bonatti: w21146
We investigate how the scientific community's perception of a scientist's prior work changes when one of his articles is retracted. Relative to non-retracted control authors, faculty members who experience a retraction see the citation rate to their earlier, non-retracted articles drop by 10% on average, consistent with the Bayesian intuition that the market inferred their work was mediocre all along. We then investigate whether the eminence of the retracted author and the cause of the retraction (fraud vs. mistake) shape the magnitude of the penalty. We find that eminent scientists are more harshly penalized than their less distinguished peers in the wake of a retraction, but only in cases involving fraud or misconduct. When the retraction event had its source in “honest mistakes,” we fin...
Published: Pierre Azoulay & Alessandro Bonatti & Joshua L. Krieger, 2017. "The career effects of scandal: Evidence from scientific retractions," Research Policy, . citation courtesy of
with Pierre Azoulay, Jeffrey L. Furman, Fiona E. Murray: w18499
To what extent does "false science" impact the rate and direction of scientific change? We examine the impact of more than 1,100 scientific retractions on the citation trajectories of articles that are related to retracted papers in intellectual space but were published prior to the retraction event. Our results indicate that following retraction and relative to carefully selected controls, related articles experience a lasting five to ten percent decline in the rate of citations received. This citation penalty is more severe when the associated retracted article involves fraud or misconduct, relative to cases where the retraction occurs because of honest mistakes. In addition, we find that the arrival rate of new articles and funding flows into these fields decrease after a retraction. We...
Published: Pierre Azoulay & Jeffrey L. Furman & Krieger & Fiona Murray, 2015. "Retractions," Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 97(5), pages 1118-1136.