Department of Economics
University of California, Davis
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
NBER Program Affiliations:
NBER Affiliation: Faculty Research Fellow
Institutional Affiliations: University of California at Davis and CEPR
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 2018||Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment|
with Clodomiro Ferreira, Maren Froemel, Paolo Surico: w25366
We provide new evidence on how monetary policy affects investment and firm finance in the United States and the United Kingdom. Younger firms paying no dividends exhibit the largest and most significant change in capital expenditure - even after conditioning on size, asset growth, Tobin's Q, leverage or liquidity - and drive the response of aggregate investment. Older companies, in contrast, hardly react at all. After a monetary policy tightening, net worth falls considerably for all firms but borrowing declines only for younger non-dividend payers, as their external finance is mostly exposed to asset value fluctuations. Conversely, cash flows change less markedly and more homogeneously across groups. Our findings highlight the role of firm finance and financial frictions in amplifying the...
|August 2018||Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches|
with Michael Carlos Best, Ethan Ilzetzki, Henrik Kleven: w24948
Using a novel source of quasi-experimental variation in interest rates, we develop a new approach to estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution (EIS). In the UK, the mortgage interest rate features discrete jumps – notches – at thresholds for the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. These notches generate large bunching below the critical LTV thresholds and missing mass above them. We develop a dynamic model that links these empirical moments to the underlying structural EIS. The average EIS is small, around 0.1, and quite homogeneous in the population. This finding is robust to structural assumptions and can allow for uncertainty, a wide range of risk preferences, portfolio reallocation, liquidity constraints, present bias, and optimization frictions. Our findings have implications for...
|May 2018||Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain|
with Nicholas Dimsdale, Natacha Postel-Vinay: w24659
The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918- 1939, has remained a particularly contentious case | not least because of its high debt environment and turbulent business cycle. This debate has often focused on the effects of government spending, but little is known about the effects of tax changes. In fact, a number of tax reforms in the period focused on long-term and social objectives, often reflecting the personality of British Chancellors. Based on extensive historiographical research, we apply a narrative approach to the interwar period in Britain and isolate a new series of exogenous tax changes. We find that tax changes have a sizable effect on GDP, with multipliers around 0.5 ...
|September 2017||The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach|
with Kilian Huber, Ethan Ilzetzki, Henrik Kleven: w23861
We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the UK and a new empirical approach. The data contain household-level information on house prices and borrowing in a panel of homeowners, who refinance at regular and quasi-exogenous intervals. The data and setting allow us to develop an empirical approach that exploits house price variation coming from idiosyncratic and exogenous timing of refinance events around the Great Recession. We present two main results. First, there is a clear and robust effect of house prices on borrowing, but the responsiveness is smaller than recent US estimates. Second, the effect of house prices on borrowing can be explained largely by collateral effects. We study the collateral channel in two ways: throu...