NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Jacopo Ponticelli

Kellogg School of Management
Northwestern University
2211 Campus Dr
Evanston, IL 60208

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Northwestern University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2019Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth
with Paula Bustos, Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi, Joan Monras: w25871
The introduction of new technologies in agriculture can foster structural transformation by freeing workers who find occupation in other sectors. The traditional view is that this reallocation of workers towards manufacturing can lead to industrial development. However, when workers moving to manufacturing are mostly unskilled, this process reinforces a country's comparative advantage in unskilled-labor intensive industries. To the extent that these industries undertake less innovative activities, this change in industrial specialization can lead to lower long run growth. We highlight this mechanism in an endogenous growth model and provide empirical evidence using a large and exogenous increase in agricultural productivity due to the legalization of genetically engineered soy in Brazil. ...
October 2018Household Debt and Recession in Brazil
with Gabriel Garber, Atif Mian, Amir Sufi: w25170
Brazil experienced one of the most severe recessions in its history from 2014 to 2016. Following a pattern shown for previous economic downturns in other countries, the Brazilian recession was preceded by a substantial increase in household debt from 2003 to 2014. This study utilizes a novel individual level data set on household borrowing in order to provide details of the household debt boom. The data set allows for a decomposition of the rise in household debt by the type of debt and by the source of debt, and it allows for an analysis of the income of individuals taking on more debt during the boom. We conclude with an exploration of potential causes of the rise in household debt.
 
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