Federal Reserve Board
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Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Board
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|April 2019||Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve|
with Roger Farmer: w25743
Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)- model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We estimate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries. Our preferred specification is the constrained version of the FM-model which has a marginal data density that is more than 40 log points higher than the NK alternative. Our findings also demonstrate that cross-country macroeconomic differences are well explained by the different shocks that hit ea...
|September 2017||Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve|
with Roger E.A. Farmer: w23837
We extend Farmer's (2012b) Monetary (FM) Model in three ways. First, we derive an analog of the Taylor Principle and we show that it fails in U.S. data. Second, we use the fact that the model displays dynamic indeterminacy to explain the real effects of nominal shocks. Third, we use the fact the model displays steady-state indeterminacy to explain the persistence of unemployment. We show that the FM model outperforms the NK model and we argue that its superior performance arises from the fact that the reduced form of the FM model is a VECM as opposed to a VAR.
Published: Roger E.A. Farmer & Giovanni Nicolò, 2018. "Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, . citation courtesy of
|June 2017||A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models|
with Francesco Bianchi: w23521
We propose a novel approach to deal with the problem of indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations models. The method consists of augmenting the original model with a set of auxiliary exogenous equations that are used to provide the adequate number of explosive roots in presence of indeterminacy. The solution in this expanded state space, if it exists, is always determinate, and is identical to the indeterminate solution of the original model. The proposed approach accommodates determinacy and any degree of indeterminacy, and it can be implemented even when the boundaries of the determinacy region are unknown. As a result, the researcher can estimate the model by using standard packages without restricting the estimates to a certain area of the parameter space. We apply our method to si...
|September 2013||Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models|
with Roger E.A. Farmer, Vadim Khramov: w19457
We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new fundamentals. This redefinition allows us to treat indeterminate models as determinate and to apply standard solution algorithms. We prove that our method is equivalent to the solution method proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2003, 2004), and using the New-Keynesian model described in Lubik and Schorfheide (2004), we demonstrate how to apply our theoretical results with a practical exercise.
Published: Farmer, Roger E.A. & Khramov, Vadim & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2015. "Solving and estimating indeterminate DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-36. citation courtesy of