Aaron B. Flaaen
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
20th and C St.
Washington DC. 20551
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Board
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2019||Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing|
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We provide new facts about the role of multinationals in the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1993-2011, using a novel microdata panel with firm-level ownership and trade information. Multinational-owned establishments displayed lower employment growth than a narrow control group and accounted for 41% of the aggregate manufacturing employment decline. Further, newly multinational establishments in the U.S. experienced job losses, while their parent firms increased input imports from abroad. We develop a model that rationalizes this behavior and bound a key elasticity with our microdata. The estimates imply that a reduction in the costs of foreign sourcing leads firms to increase imports of intermediates and to reduce U.S. manufacturing employment. Our findings suggest that ...
|April 2019||The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines|
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We analyze several rounds of U.S. import restrictions against washing machines. Using retail price data, we estimate the price effect of these import restrictions by comparing the price changes of washers with those of other appliances. We find that in response to the 2018 tariffs on nearly all source countries, the price of washers rose by nearly 12 percent; the price of dryers—a complementary good not subject to tariffs—increased by an equivalent amount. Factoring in the effect of dryers and price increases by domestic brands, our estimates for the 2018 tariffs on washers imply a tariff elasticity of consumer prices of between 110 and 230 percent. The 2016 antidumping duties against China—which accounted for the overwhelming majority of U.S. imports—led to minor price movements due to ...
|November 2017||Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective|
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Prior literature has established that displaced workers suffer persistent earnings losses by following workers in administrative data after mass layoffs. This literature assumes that these are involuntary separations owing to economic distress. This paper examines this assumption by matching survey data on worker-supplied reasons for separations with administrative data. Workers exhibit substantially different earnings dynamics in mass layoffs depending on the rea- son for separation. Using a new methodology to account for the increased separation rates across all survey responses during a mass layoff, the paper finds earnings loss estimates that are surprisingly close to those using only administrative data.
Published: Aaron Flaaen & Matthew D. Shapiro & Isaac Sorkin, 2019. "Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol 11(2), pages 193-227. citation courtesy of