NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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16 May 2019

Monetary Policy, the Exchange Rate , and the Carry Trade

Charles W. Calomiris and Harry Mamaysky find that the correlation between a developed country’s interest rate differential relative to the dollar (carry) and the future returns from investing in its currency switches sign from the pre- to the post-crisis subperiod, while for emerging markets the carry variable is never a significant predictor of returns.

15 May 2019

Policy News and Stock Market Volatility

Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Kyle J. Kost find that 72 percent of newspaper articles on equity market volatility discuss the macroeconomic outlook, while 44 percent discuss commodity markets. The share of articles with attention to government policy trends up between 1985 and the present day, with peaks around 9/11, the 2011 government shutdown, and the months after the 2016 presidential election.

14 May 2019

Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession

During the Great Recession, states with more-generous bankruptcy exemptions had significantly smaller declines in employment in sectors that produce goods that are difficult to trade, and also had larger increases in unsecured debt write-downs than states with less-generous exemptions, Adrien Auclert, Will S. Dobbie, and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham show.

13 May 2019

How Intergroup Contact Can Foster Nation Building

Studying a 1980s population resettlement program in Indonesia, Samuel Bazzi, Arya Gaduh, Alexander D. Rothenberg, and Maisy Wong find greater integration in communities with many small groups than in communities with a few large groups, where ethnic attachment increases and integration declines.

10 May 2019

How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor

Automation of production tasks displaces labor, while the creation of new tasks from technological and product market innovation reinstates it, according to Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo. They suggest that that slower employment growth over the last three decades was due to faster displacement, weaker reinstatement, and slower productivity growth.

9 May 2019

Inexpensive Heating Reduces Winter Mortality

Analyzing cross-state and over-time variation in the cost of heating in the U.S., Janjala Chirakijja, Seema Jayachandran, and Pinchuan Ong find that lower heating prices reduce winter mortality, mostly from cardiovascular and respiratory causes.

8 May 2019

Improving Educational Pathways to Social Mobility

A nationwide high school reform in 1994 in Norway that sought to improve the vocational track increased male completion of the vocational curriculum and led to reduced criminal activity and higher earnings in adulthood, especially among disadvantaged men, Marianne Bertrand, Magne Mogstad, and Jack Mountjoy find.

7 May 2019

Mobile Money and Healthcare Use in East Africa

Studying the Kisumu region of western Kenya, Haseeb Ahmed and Benjamin W. Cowan find evidence that money transfer technology helps households increase utilization of formal healthcare services.

6 May 2019

Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity

Analyzing 500,000 used auto loans and discontinuities in contract terms offered by hundreds of lenders, Bronson Argyle, Taylor D. Nadauld, and Christopher Palmer show that auto buyers’ demand is more sensitive to the maturity of their loan than to its interest rate, and that consumers bunch at round-number monthly payment amounts.

3 May 2019

How Pollution Markets Affect Diverse Communities

Southern California’s pollution-trading program benefited all demographic groups and generated a more equitable overall distribution of emissions, a study by Erin T. Mansur and Glenn Sheriff suggests, though population shifts over time may have undermined anticipated gains for African Americans.
 
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