National Bureau of Economic Research

Summer Institute 2009

Week 1 Master Agenda July 6 -- 10

 

 

 

 

 

 MONDAY, JULY 6 

 

8:30 am

IFM

ROBERTO CHANG, Rutgers University and NBER

 

 

 

ANDRES FERNANDEZ, Rutgers University

 

 

 

On the Sources of Aggregate Fluctuations in Emerging Economies

 

 

 

 

 

9:00 am

CF

CHRISTIAN LEUZ, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

CATHERINE SCHRAND, University of Pennsylvania

 

 

 

Disclosure and the Cost of Capital: Evidence from Firms’ Responses to the Enron Shock

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

GADI BARLEVY, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

 

 

 

A Leverage-Based Model of Speculative Bubbles

 

 

 

 

 

 9:00 am

DAE

ZORINA KHAN, Bowdoin University and NBER

 

 

 

Promoting the Useful Arts: An Empirical Estimation of Technological Innovation outside the Patent System, 1790-1880

 

 

 

 

 

9:45 am

IFM

ANDREA RAFFO, Federal Reserve Board

 

 

 

Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:15 am

DAE

LISA COOK, Michigan State University

 

 

 

A Green Light for Red Patents? Outsourcing Patent Protection in the Soviet Union and Russia, 1971 to 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

LUCA DEDOLA and GIOVANNI LOMARDO, European Central Bank

 

 

 

Financial Frictions, Financial Globalization and The International Propagation of Shocks

 

 

 

 

 

10:20 am

CF

OLIVER HART, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

BENGT HOLMSTROM, MIT and NBER

 

 

 

A Theory of Firm Scope

 

 

 

 

 

11:00 am

IFM

FEDERICO MANDELMAN, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

 

 

ANDREI ZLATE, Boston College

 

 

 

Immigration and the Macroeconomy

 

 

 

 

 

11:10 am

CF

ULF AXELSON, Stockholm School of Economics and NBER

 

 

 

PHILIP BOND, University of Pennsylvania

 

 

 

Investment Banking Careers

 

 

 

 

 

11:15 am

DAE

SHIH-TSE LO, McGill University

 

 

 

DHANOOS SUTTHIPHISAL, McGill University and NBER

 

 

 

Does it Matter Who Has the Right to Patent: First-to-Invent or First-to-File? Lessons from Canada

 

 

 

 

 

11:30 am

EFCE

GEORGE-MARIOS ANGELETOS, MIT and NBER

JENNIFER LA'O, MIT

 

 

 

Noisy Business Cycles

 

 

 

 

 

1:00 pm

ME

BARTOS MAĆKOWIAK, European Central Bank

 

 

 

EMANUEL MOENCH, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

MIRKO WIEDERHOLT, Northwestern University

 

 

 

Sectoral Price Data and Models of Price Setting

 

 

 

 

 

 1:15 pm

DAE

JOHN PARMAN, UC, Davis

 

 

 

Good Schools Make Good Neighbors: Human Capital Spillovers in Early 20th Century Agriculture

 

 

 

 

 

1:20 pm

CF

DARREN KISGEN, Boston College

 

 

 

PHILIP STRAHAN, Boston College and NBER

 

 

 

Do Regulations Based on Credit Ratings Affect a Firm’s Cost of Capital?

 

 

 

and

 

 

 

DARREN KISGEN, Boston College

 

 

 

PHILIP STRAHAN, Boston College and NBER

 

 

 

Do Regulations Based on Credit Ratings Affect a Firm’s Cost of Capital?

 

 

 

 

 

1:55 pm

ME

REBECCA BARROS, IBRE, Getulio Vargas Foundation

 

 

 

MARCO BONOMO, EPGE, Getulio Vargas Foundation

 

 

 

CARLOS CARVALHO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

SILVIA MATOS, IBRE, Getulio Vargas Foundation

 

 

 

Price Setting in a Variable Macroeconomic Environment: Evidence from Brazilian CPI

 

 

 

 

 

 2:30 pm

DAE

RAN ABRAMITZKY, Stanford University

 

 

 

LEAH BOUSTAN, UC, Los Angeles and NBER

 

 

 

KATHERINE ERIKSSON UC, Los Aneles

 

 

 

Measuring Selectivity and Returns in the Age of Mass Migration

 

 

 

 

 

2:50 pm

CF

NUNO FERNANDES, IMD

 

 

 

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Investment Choices and Implications around the World

 

 

 

and

 

 

 

SHAI BERNSTEIN, Harvard University

 

 

 

JOSH LERNER, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

ANTOINETTE SCHOAR, MIT and NBER

 

 

 

The Investment Strategies of Sovereign Wealth Funds

 

 

 

 

 

3:05 pm

ME

ALESSANDRO BARATTIERI, Boston College

 

 

 

SUSANTO BASU, Boston College and NBER

PETER GOTTSCHALK, Boston College

 

 

 

Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages

 

 

 

 

 

 3:30 pm

DAE

SHAWN KANTOR, UC, Merced and NBER

 

 

 

ALEXANDER WHALLEY, UC, Merced

 

 

 

The Economic Impact of the Ascendancy of America’s Colleges and Universities

 

 

 

 

 

4:00 pm

CF

MALCOLM BAKER, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

XIN PAN, Harvard University

 

 

 

JEFFREY WURGLER, New York University and NBER

 

 

 

A Reference Point Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions

 

 

 

 

 

TUESDAY, JULY 7: 

 

 

 

 

 

8:30 am

IFM

NICOLAS COEURDACIER, London Business School

 

 

 

ROBERT KOLLMAN, ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles

 

 

 

PHILIPPE MARTIN, Sciences Po, Paris

 

 

 

International Portfolios, Capital Accumulation, and Foreign Asset Dynamics

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

SOPHOCLES MAVROEIDIS, Brown University

 

 

 

LEANDRO MAGNUSSON, Tulane University

 

 

 

Identifying Euler Equation Models Via Stability Restrictions

 

 

 

 

 

8:50 am

CF

ASHWINI AGRAWAL, New York University

 

 

 

The Impact of Investor Protection Law on Corporate Policy: Evidence from the Blue Sky Laws

 

 

 

 

 

 9:00 am

DAE

MELINDA MILLER, US Naval Academy

 

 

 

The Effect of Slavery on African American Family Formation

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

GLENN RUDEBUSCH and ERIC T. SWANSON,

 

 

 

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

 

 

 

The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks

 

 

 

 

 

9:40 am

CF

FRANCESCA CORNELLI, London Business School

 

 

 

ZBIGNIEW KOMINEK, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

 

 

 

ALEXANDER LJUNGQVIST, New York University

 

 

 

Monitoring Managers: Does It Matter?

 

 

 

 

 

9:45 am

IFM

KAREN LEWIS, University of Pennsylvania and NBER

 

 

 

EDITH LU, University of Pennsylvania

 

 

 

What Do International Asset Returns Imply about Consumption Risk Sharing?

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

ATSUSHI INOUE, North Carolina State University

 

 

 

BARBARA ROSSI, Duke University

 

 

 

Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Fluctuations

 

 

 

 

 

10:15 am

DAE

JEFFREY GREENBAUM, UC, Berkeley

 

 

 

Land Endowments, Child Labor, and the Development of Public Schooling: Evidence from the Early 20th Century United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

MICHELLE ALEXOPOULOS and JON COHEN, University of Toronto

 

 

 

Uncertain Times, Uncertain Measures

 

 

 

 

 

10:50 am

CF

ALBERTO ALESINA, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

FRANCESCA LOTTI, Bank of Italy

 

 

 

PAOLO EMILIO MISTRULLI, Bank of Italy

 

 

 

Do Women Pay More for Credit? Evidence from Italy

 

 

 

and

 

 

 

MARIANNE BERTRAND, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

ADAIR MORSE, University of Chicago

 

 

 

Information Disclosure, Cognitive Biases, and Payday Borrowing

 

 

 

 

 

11:00 am

IFM

SHANG-JIN WEI, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

XIAOBO ZHANG, IFPRI

 

 

 

The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

SERENA NG, Columbia University

 

 

 

EMANUEL MOENCH and SIMON POTTER, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Models

 

 

 

 

 

11:15 am

DAE

CAROLYN MOEHLING, Rutgers University and NBER

 

 

 

MELISSA A. THOMASSON, Miami University and NBER

 

 

 

Political Economy of Saving Mothers and Babies

 

 

 

 

 

11:30 am

EFCE

NICHOLAS BLOOM, Stanford University and NBER

 

 

 

MAX FLOETOTTO, Stanford University

 

 

 

NIR JAIMOVICH, Stanford University and NBER

 

 

 

Really Uncertain Business Cycles

 

 

 

 

 

1:00 pm

ME

UDAY RAJAN, University of Michigan

 

 

 

AMIT SERU, University of Chicago

 

 

 

VIKRANT VIG, London Business School

 

 

 

The Failure of Models that Predict Failure:  Distance, Incentives and Defaults

 

 

 

 

 

 1:15 pm

DAE

STEFANIA ALBANESI, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

CLAUDIA OLIVETTI, Boston University and NBER

 

 

 

Maternal Health and Fertility

 

 

 

 

 

1:15 pm

Risk

WEI JIANG, Columbia University

 

 

 

ASHLYN NELSON, Stanford University

 

 

 

EDWARD VYTLACIL, Yale University 

 

 

 

Liar’s loan? --Effects of Loan Origination Channel and Loan Sale on Delinquency

 

 

 

and

 

 

 

TOMASZ PISKORSKI, Columbia University

 

 

 

AMIT SERU and VIKRANT VIG, University of Chicago

 

 

 

Securitization and Distressed Loan Renegotiation: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

 

 

 

 

 

1:55 pm

ME

DENIZ IGAN, PRACHI MISHRA and THIERRY TRESSEL,

 

 

 

International Monetary Fund

 

 

 

A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis

 

 

 

 

 

 2:30 pm

DAE

ELIZABETH O. ANANAT, Duke University and NBER

 

 

 

JOANNA LAHEY, Texas A&M University

 

 

 

Birthing a Nation: The Effect of Abortion and Birth Control Access on the 19th Century Demographic Transition

 

 

 

 

 

3:00 pm

Risk

VASSO IOANNIDOU and STEVEN ONGENA, Tilbur University

 

 

 

JOSÉ LUIS PEYDRÓ, European Central Bank

 

 

 

Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

 

 

 

 

 

3:05 pm

ME

Discussion with JÓN STEINSSON, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

Iceland’s Financial Meltdown

 

 

 

 

 

 3:30 pm

DAE

KAREN CLAY, Carnegie Mellon University

 

 

 

WERNER TROESKEN, University of Pittsburgh and NBER

 

 

 

MICHAEL HAINES, Colgate University and NBER

 

 

 

Lead, Mortality, and Productivity

 

 

 

 

 

3:50 pm

Risk

SUMIT AGARWAL and GENE AMROMIN, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

 

 

 

ITZHAK BEN-DAVID, Ohio State University

 

 

 

SOUPHALA CHOMSISENGPHET, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

 

 

 

DOUG EVANOFF, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

 

 

 

Do Financial Counseling Mandates Improve Mortgage Choice and Performance? Evidence from a Legislative Experiment

 

 

 

 

 

5:00 pm

Risk

MARIASSUNTA GIANNETTI, Stockholm School of Economics

 

 

 

ANDREI SIMONOV, Michigan State University

 

 

 

On the Real Effects of Bank Bailouts: Micro Evidence from Japan

 

 

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, JULY 8:

 

 

 

 

 

8:30 am

IFM

MARTIN EVANS, Georgetown University and NBER

 

 

 

Order Flows and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk

Proposal session 1:  Closed.  Proposal authors and organizers only.

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

JAN J.J. GROEN, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

RICHARD PAAP, Erasmus University

 

 

 

FRANCESCO RAVAZZOLA, Norges Bank

 

 

 

Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World

 

 

 

 

 

 9:00 am

DAE

WILLIAM HYNES, Oxford University

 

 

 

DAVID JACKS, Simon Fraser University and NBER

 

 

 

KEVIN O'ROURKE, Trinity College and NBER

 

 

 

Commodity Market Disintegration in the Interwar Period

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

ZHENG LIU, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

 

 

 

PENGFEI WANG, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

 

 

 

TAO ZHA, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

 

 

Asset-Price Channels and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

 

 

 

 

 

9:45 am

IFM

TANYA MOLODSTVA, Emory University

 

 

 

ALEX NIKOLSKO-RZHEVSKYY, University of Memphis

 

 

 

DAVID PAPELL, University of Houston

 

 

 

Taylor Rules and the Euro

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

SEBASTIANO MANZAN, Baruch College

 

 

 

DAWIT ZEROM, California State University at Fresno

 

 

 

Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?

 

 

 

 

 

10:00 am

Risk

Proposal discussion session 2:

 

 

 

 

 

10:15 am

DAE

PRICE FISHBACK, University of Arizona and NBER

 

 

 

VALENTINA KACHANOVSKAYA, University of Arizona

 

 

 

Did Federal Spending Stimulate Economic Activity During The 1920s and 1930s?

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

LAWRENCE CHRISTIANO, MARTIN EICHENBAUM and SERGIO REBELO, Northwestern University and NBER

 

 

 

When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?

 

 

 

 

 

11:00 am

IFM

NICOLAS BERMAN, European University Institute

 

 

 

PHILIPPE MARTIN, Science Po, Paris

 

 

 

THIERRY MAYER, Paris School of Economics

 

 

 

How Do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes? Theory, Empirics, and Aggregate Implications

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

MATTEO CICCARELLI and JUAN ANGEL GARCIA, European Central Bank

 

 

 

Inflation Compensation and the Macroeconomy: What Drives Break-Even Inflation Rates?

 

 

 

 

 

11:15 am

DAE

RICHARD HORNBECK, MIT

 

 

 

Quantifying Long-Term Adjustment to Environmental Change: Evidence from the American Dust Bowl

 

 

 

 

 

11:30 am

EFCE

MARTIN BODENSTEIN, CHRISTOPHER J. ERCEG, and LUCA GUERRIERI, Federal Reserve Board

 

 

 

The Effects of Foreign Shocks When US Interest Rates are at Zero

 

 

 

 

 

11:40 am

Risk

Proposal discussion session 3

 

 

 

 

 

1:00 pm

ME

ROBERT BARRO, Harvard University

 

 

 

EMI NAKAMURA, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

JÓN STEINSSON, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

JOSÉ URSÚA, Harvard University

 

 

 

Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters

 

 

 

 

 

 1:15 pm

DAE

DONGWOO YOO, Ohio State University

 

 

 

RICK STECKEL, Ohio State University and NBER

 

 

 

Institutions and Economic Growth in Asia

 

 

 

 

 

1:50 pm

Risk

DOUGLAS DIAMOND and RAGHURAM RAJAN, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

Fear of Fire Sales and the Credit Freeze

 

 

 

and

 

 

 

ANDREI SHLEIFER, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

ROBERT VISHNY, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

Unstable Banking

 

 

 

 

 

1:55 pm

ME

OLIVIER J. BLANCHARD, MIT, and NBER

 

 

 

JEAN-PAUL L’HUILLIER, MIT

 

 

 

GUIDO LORENZONI, MIT and NBER

 

 

 

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration

 

 

 

 

 

 2:30 pm

DAE

MARC WEIDENMIER, Claremont McKenna College and NBER

 

 

 

JOSEPH DAVIS, The Vanguard Group and NBER

 

 

 

The Macroeconomic Impact of the American Civil War

 

 

 

 

 

3:05 pm

ME

ZHIGUO HE, University of Chicago

 

 

 

WEI XIONG, Princeton University and NBER

 

 

 

Dynamic Debt Runs

 

 

 

 

 

 3:30 pm

DAE

KRIS MITCHENER, Santa Clara University and NBER

 

 

 

DAVID WHEELOCK, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

 

 

 

Does the Structure of Banking Markets Matter for Economic Growth? Evidence from the Rise of U.S. Manufacturing

 

 

 

 

 

4:00 pm

Risk

ATIF MIAN and AMIR SUFI, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis

 

 

 

and

 

 

 

ADAM ASHCRAFT, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

 

 

 

JAMES VICKERY, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

Incentives and Inflation in Structured Finance Credit Ratings

 

 

 

 

 

THURSDAY, JULY 9: 

 

 

 

 

 

8:00 am

EFHJ

MARK BILS, University of Rochester and NBER

 

 

 

PETE KLENOW, Stanford University and NBER

 

 

 

BENJAMIN MALIN, Federal Reserve Board

 

 

 

Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks

 

 

 

 

 

8:30 am

IFM

DHAMMIKA DHARMAPALA, University of Connecticut

 

 

 

C. FRITZ FOLEY, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

KRISTIN FORBES, MIT and NBER

 

 

 

Watch What I Do, Not What I Say: The Unintended Consequences of the Homeland Investment Act

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

FALLAW SOWELL, Carnegie Mellon University

 

 

 

The Empirical Saddlepoint Likelihood Estimator Applied to Two-Step GMM

 

 

 

 

 

8:45 am

EFHJ

EMI NAKAMURA and JON STEINSSON, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market

 

 

 

 

 

 9:00 am

DAE

CHRIS HANES, Binghamton University

 

 

 

PAUL RHODE, University of Arizona and NBER

 

 

 

Harvests and Financial Crises in Gold-Standard America

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk

DARRELL DUFFIE, Stanford University and NBER

 

 

 

HAOIANG ZHU, Stanford University

 

 

 

Does a Central Clearing Counterparty Reduce Counterparty Risk?

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

RICARDO REIS, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

On the optimal timing of policy announcements

 

 

 

 

 

9:45 am

IFM

GIANLUCA BENIGNO, London School of Economics

 

 

 

HUIGANG CHEN, International Monetary Fund

 

 

 

CHRISTOPHER OTROK, University of Virginia

 

 

 

ALESSANDRO REBUCCI, Inter-American Development Bank

 

 

 

ERIC YOUNG, University of Virginia

 

 

 

Optimal Policy with Occasionally Binding Credit Constraints

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

GRAHAM ELLIOTT, UC, San Diego

 

 

 

ULRICH MULLER, Princeton University

 

 

 

Pre- and Post-Break Parameter Inference

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFHJ

DOIREANN FITZGERALD, Stanford University

 

 

 

STEFANIE HALLER, ESRI

 

 

 

Exchange Rates and Producer Prices: Evidence from Micro Data

 

 

 

 

 

10:15 am

DAE

ALDO MUSACCHIO, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

ANDRÉ C. MARTÍNEZ FRITSCHER, Boston University

 

 

 

Can Endowments Explain Regional Inequality? State Governments and the Provision of Public Goods in Brazil, 1889-1930

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk

VIRAL ACHARYA, New York University and NBER

 

 

 

OUARDA MERROUCHE, Bank of England

 

 

 

Precautionary Hoarding of Liquidity and Inter-Bank Markets: Evidence from the Sub-prime Crisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFCE

JORDI GALI, CREI and NBER

 

 

 

The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve

 

 

 

 

 

10:30 am

EFHJ

ALESSANDRO BARATTIERI, Boston College

 

 

 

SUSANTO BASU, Boston College and NBER

 

 

 

PETER GOTTSCHALK, Boston College

 

 

 

Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages

 

 

 

 

 

11:00 am

IFM

GIANCARLO CORSETTI, European University Institute

 

 

 

ANDRE MEIER, International Monetary Fund

 

 

 

GERNOT MULLER, University of Bonn

 

 

 

Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

TODD CLARK, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

 

 

 

MICHAEL McCRACKEN, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

 

 

 

Nested Forecast Model Comparisons: A New Approach to Testing Equal Accuracy

 

 

 

 

 

11:10 am

Risk

RAVI BANSAL, Duke University and NBER,

 

 

 

WILBUR JOHN COLEMAN, Duke University,

 

 

 

CHRISTIAN LUNDBLAD, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

 

 

 

Liquidity and Financial Intermediation

 

 

 

 

 

11:15 am

DAE

LEE ALSTON, University of Colorado and NBER

 

 

 

EDWYNA HARRIS, Monash University

 

 

 

BERNARDO MUELLER, Universidade de Brasília

 

 

 

De Facto and De Jure Property Rights: Land Settlement and Land Conflict on the Australian, Brazilian and U.S. Frontiers

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFHJ

GITA GOPINATH, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

PIERRE-OLIVIER GOURNICHAS, UC, Berkeley and NBER

 

 

 

CHANG-TAI HSIEH, University of Chicago

 

 

 

Estimating the Border Effect: Some New Evidence

 

 

 

 

 

11:30 am

EFCE

MICHAEL WOODFORD, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy

 

 

 

 

 

1:00 pm

ME

JOHN B. TAYLOR, Stanford University and NBER

 

 

 

VOLKER WIELAND, Goethe University Frankfurt

 

 

 

Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Data Base

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFSF

VASCO CURDIA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

RICARDO REIS, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

Correlated Disturbances and the Sources of U.S. Business Cycles

 

 

 

 

 

 

AP

JASON BEELER, Harvard University

 

 

 

JOHN Y. CAMPBELL, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment

 

 

 

 

 

1:55 pm

ME

ERICA X.N. LI and FRANCISO PALOMINO, University of Michigan

 

 

 

The Federal Reserve and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

 

 

 

 

 

2:00 pm

EFSF

IVANA KOMMUNJER, UC, San Diego

 

 

 

SERENA NG, Columbia University

 

 

 

On the Identification of DSGE Models

 

 

 

 

 

 

AP

EFRAIM BENMELECH, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

EUGENE KANDEL, Hebrew University

 

 

 

PIETRO VERONESI, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

Stock-Based Compensation and CEO (Dis)Incentives

 

 

 

 

 

3:05 pm

ME

ZHIGUO HE, University of Chicago

 

 

 

ARVIND KRISHNAMURTHY, Northwestern University and NBER

 

 

 

Intermediary Asset Pricing

 

 

 

 

 

3:30 pm

EFSF

JEAN BOIVIN, HEC Montreal and NBER

 

 

 

MARC GIANNONI, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

On the Welfare Costs of Imperfect Information for Monetary Policy

 

 

 

 

 

 

AP

DAEHEE JEONG, HWAGYUN KIM, and JOON Y. PARK,

 

 

 

Texas A&M University

 

 

 

Does Ambiguity Matter? Estimating Asset Pricing Models with a Multiple-Priors Recursive Utility

 

 

 

 

 

4:30 pm

EFSF

FRANCESCO BIANCHI, Duke University

 

 

 

Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II Macroeconomic Dynamics

 

 

 

 

 

 

AP

ALEXANDER W. BUTLER and JESS CORNAGGIA,

 

 

 

University of Texas at Dallas

 

 

 

GUSTAVO GRULLON and JAMES P. WESTON, Rice University

 

 

 

Corporate Financing Decisions and Managerial Market Timing

 

FRIDAY JULY 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8:30 am

IFM

EMINE BOZ, International Monetary Fund

 

 

 

ENRIQUE MENDOZA, University of Maryland and NBER

 

 

 

Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

PAOLO ZAFFARONI, Imperial College London

 

 

 

Generalized Least Squares Estimation of Panel with Common Shocks

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFHJ

MICHAEL WOODFORD, Columbia University and NBER

 

 

 

Information Constrained State Dependent Pricing

 

 

 

 

 

8:45 am

AP

MIKE GOLOSOV and GUIDO LORENZONI, MIT and NBER

 

 

 

ALEH TSYVINSKI, Yale University and NBER

 

 

 

Decentralized Trading with Private Information

 

 

 

 

 

9:00 am

EFCE

ALEJANDRO JUSTINIANO, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

 

 

 

GIORGIO PRIMICERI, Northwestern University and NBER

 

 

 

Potential and Natural Output

 

 

 

 

 

9:15 am

EFHJ

JULIO ROTEMBERG, Harvard University and NBER

 

 

 

Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret

 

 

 

 

 

9:45 am

IFM

NIALL COFFEY, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

WARREN HRUNG, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

HOAI-LUU NGUYEN, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

ASANI SARKAR, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

 

 

Credit Risk, Liquidity Risk, and Deviations from Covered Interest Parity

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

ELENA ANDREOU and ANDROS KOURTELLOS, University of Cyprus

 

 

 

ERIC GHYSELS, University of North Carolina

 

 

 

Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Look at High-Frequency Financial Data?

 

 

 

 

 

 

AP

DAVID BACKUS, New York University and NBER

 

 

 

MIKHAIL CHERNOV, London School of Business

 

 

 

IAN MARTIN, Stanford University and NBER

 

 

 

Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options

 

 

 

 

 

10:15 am

EFCE

LUTZ KILIAN, University of Michigan

 

 

 

ROBERT J. VIGFUSSON, Federal Reserve Board

 

 

 

Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFHJ

ANDREW LEVIN and TACK YUN, Federal Reserve Board

 

 

 

Reconsidering the Microeconomic Foundations of Price-Setting Behavior

 

 

 

 

 

11:00 am

IFM, AP, ME

Discussion on the Crisis

 

 

 

MARIO DRAGHI, Governor, Bank of Italy, and Chair, Financial Stability Forum

 

 

 

STEFAN INGVES, Governor, Sveriges Riksbank

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFWW

AMIR KHANDANI, MIT

 

 

 

ANDREW LO, MIT and NBER

 

 

 

What Happened to the Quants in August 2007?  Evidence from Factors and Transactions Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFHJ

FRANCOIS GOURIO and LEENA RUDANKO, Boston University

 

 

 

Customer Capital

 

 

 

 

 

11:30 am

EFCE

MICHELE CAVALLO, Federal Reserve Board

 

 

 

TAO WU, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

 

 

 

Measuring Oil-price Shocks Using Market-based Information

 

 

 

 

 

1:00 pm

EFSF

HYEONGWOO KIM, Auburn University

 

 

 

MASAO OGAKI, Ohio State University

 

 

 

PPP and the Taylor Rule

 

 

 

 

 

1:30 pm

ME

ATIF MIAN, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

AMIR SUFI, University of Chicago

 

 

 

The Effect of House Prices on Homeowner Borrowing:  An Analysis of the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

AP

NICK ROUSSANOV, University of Pennsylvania

 

 

 

Composition of Wealth, Conditioning Information, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns

 

 

 

 

 

2:00 pm

EFSF

NOAH WILLIAMS, University of Wisconsin-Madison

 

 

 

Interest Rate Rules, Inflation Risk, and Multiple Equilibria

 

 

 

 

 

2:25 pm

ME

TAKEO HOSHI, UC, San Diego and NBER

 

 

 

ANIL K KASHYAP, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

Will the U.S. Bank Recapitalization Succeed? Lessons from Japan

 

 

 

 

 

3:00 pm

AP

LUBOS PASTOR, University of Chicago and NBER

 

 

 

ROBERT STAMBAUGHm University of Pennsylvania and NBER

 

 

 

Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?

 

 

 

 

 

3:15 pm

EFSF

PABLO GUERRON-QUINTANA and ATSUSHI INOUE, North Carolina State University

 

 

 

LUTZ KILIAN, University of Michigan

 

 

 

Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models

 

 

 

 

 

4:30 pm

 

The Inaugural Martin Feldstein Lecture

 

 

 

JOHN B. TAYLOR, Stanford University and NBER

 

 

 

Empirically Evaluating Economic Policy in Real Time