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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.
International Seminar on Macroeconomics

Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi, ISOM Chairs

Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth West, Program Organizers

Hosted by the Central Bank of Cyprus

Mediterranean Beach Hotel
Amathus Avenue
Limassol 3310
Cyprus

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† June 12-13, 2009

PROGRAM


THURSDAY, JUNE 11:

8:00 pm†††††††††††† Welcome Reception - Mediterranean Beach Hotel

FRIDAY, JUNE 12:

8:30 am†††††††††††† Registration

8:45 am†††††††††††† Welcome and Opening Remarks

Financial Crisis

9:15 am†††††††††††† Free Flows, Limited Diversification:Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001
††††††††††††††††††††††† Dennis Quinn, Georgetown University
††††††††††††††††††††††† Joachim Voth, CREI, Barcelona

††††††††††††††††††††††† Discussants: †††† Huw Pill, European Central Bank
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

10:30 am†††††††††† Coffee Break

10:45 am†††††††††† The Default Puzzle: Underwriters and Sovereign Bond Markets (1815-2007)
†††††††††††††††††††††††
Marc Flandreau, Graduate Institute Geneva
††††††††††††††††††††††† Juan Flores, University of Geneva
††††††††††††††††††††††† Norbert Gaillard, Sciences Po.
††††††††††††††††††††††† Sebastian Nieto, OECD

††††††††††††††††††††††† Discussants: †††† Vincent Reinhart, American Enterprise Institute
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Albrecht Ritschl, London School of Economics

12:00 pm†††††††††† Lunch

1:00 pm†††††††††††† Systemic Risk-Taking and the U.S. Financial Crisis
†††††††††††††††††††††††
Romain Ranciere, IMF
††††††††††††††††††††††† Aaron Tornell, UC, Los Angeles

††††††††††††††††††††††† Discussants: †††† Philippe Bacchetta, University of Lausanne
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Enrique Mendoza, University of Maryland and NBER

International Economics Puzzles

2:15 pm†††††††††††† The Feldstein-Horioka Fact
†††††††††††††††††††††††
Domenico Giannone, European Central Bank
††††††††††††††††††††††† Michele Lenza,
European Central Bank

††††††††††††††††††††††† Discussants: †††† Richard Clarida, Columbia University and NBER
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Philip Lane, Trinity College Dublin

3:30 pm†††††††††††† Coffee Break

3:45 pm†††††††††††† Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?
††††††††††††††††††††††† Philippe Bacchetta, University of Lausanne
††††††††††††††††††††††† Eric van Wincoop, University of Virginia and NBER
††††††††††††††††††††††† Toni Beutler, University of Lausanne

††††††††††††††††††††††† Discussants: †††† Menzie Chinn, University of Wisconsin and NBER
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Domenico Giannone, European Central Bank

5:00 pm†††††††††††† Adjourn

8:00 pm††††††††††††
Gala Dinner - Mediterranean Beach Hotel



SATURDAY, JUNE 13:

Exchange Rates and Financial Development

9:00 am†††††††††††† International Reserves and Underdeveloped Capital Markets
††††††††††††††††††††††† Kathryn Dominguez,
University of Michigan and NBER

††††††††††††††††††††††† Discussants: †††† Philippe Martin, Sciences
Po.
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Carmen Reinhart, University of Maryland and NBER

10:15 am†††††††††† Coffee Break

10:30 am†††††††††† The Nontradable Goodsí Real Exchange Rate Puzzle
††††††††††††††††††††††† Lukasz Drozd, University of Wisconsin
††††††††††††††††††††††† Jaromir Nosal, Columbia University

††††††††††††††††††††††† Discussants: †††† Jonathan Eaton, New York University and NBER
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Jean Imbs, HEC Lausanne

11:45 am†††††††††† Assessing External Equilibrium in Low Income Countries
††††††††††††††††††††††† Luca Ricci, IMF

†††††††††††††††††††††††
Discussants: †††† Nicolas Coeurdacier, London Business School
††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Michael Klein, Tufts University and NBER

1:00 pm†††††††††††† Lunch

2:00 pm†††††††††††† Panel Discussion on Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment

(Chair:Athanasios Orphanides, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus)


††††††††††††††††††††††† Huw Pill, European Central Bank
††††††††††††††††††††††† Vincent Reinhart, American Enterprise Institute
††††††††††††††††††††††† Volker Wieland, Goethe University Frankfurt
††††††††††††††††††††††† John Williams,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco


3:30 pm†††††††††††† Adjourn

5:30 pm†††††††††††† Bus departs from hotel lobby for dinner in Lefkara


SUNDAY, JUNE 14:

9:30 am†††††††††††† Bus departs from hotel lobby for group excursion:
▪Colossi Castle

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† ▪Curium

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† ▪Coffee break at Petra tou Romiou

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† ▪Paphos Mosaics

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† ▪Lunch at Yialos Fish Restaurant, Pissouri Bay










6/9/09