Jerry Thursby
Emory University
Marie Thursby
Georgia Institute of Technology and NBER
Supported by the National Academies Government
University Industry Research Roundtable (GUIRR) & the Kauffman Foundation
Objective:
The
idea that the United States dominates cutting edge science and technology is
increasingly challenged as the US share of patents and scientific awards
declines and corporations report increasing reliance on offshore research and
development (R&D)either in their own new R&D facilities or
collaboration with universities or other companies abroad. Indeed, recent
discussions within GUIRR reveal that nearly all GUIRR industrial members are
considering locating their next R&D facility or project outside the United
States. Somewhat surprisingly, the reasons given were largely relatednot to
costbut to the need for scientific expertise located elsewhere and the ease of
accessing external expertise in other countries.
Our
goal is to provide survey evidence that can serve as the basis for informed
policy discussions on these issues. We will survey US and European based
companies in order to identify key factors in R&D siting decisions and to
develop a framework to evaluate the relative importance of these factors. Such
data and analysis are critical for fruitful discussions of policy initiatives
to enable the United States to attract and retain the advanced technology
sectors that drive job creation, high productivity, and economic growth.
As increasing numbers of countries become
technologically capable, the globalization of R&D capabilities is
inevitable. The geographical location of industrial R&D investments, either
virtual or "bricks and mortar," has a cascading and long-term effect
on the economy of the region. Thus, it is not surprising that US policymakers
view any loss in the attractiveness of the United States as the location for
industrial R&D with some concern. The problem is that available evidence is
anecdotal and while agencies such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and
the National Science Foundation (NSF) provide aggregate data on R&D
expenditure, there is no source of information related to the origins of
R&D decisions. For informed policy discussions, it is important to
understand the factors affecting these decisions and their relative importance.
The
attached table lists nine types of factors that GUIRR members suggested are
important in their R&D-siting decisions.
|
FACTORS |
ISSUES |
|
1. Support for Pre-existing
Manufacturing Facilities |
|
|
2. Proximity to New Markets
(Product or Service) |
|
3. Supply of Scientists or Technical Workers in Critical
Areas
|
|
4. Technology Transfer Landscape
|
|
|
5. Intellectual Property
Protection |
|
6. Legal & Regulatory Environment
|
|
|
7. Export Requirements |
|
8. Tax Policies
|
|
|
9. Infrastructure |
|
These
factors are not listed in any particular order, nor are they exhaustive. The
proposed survey will focus first on identifying the importance of these and
other factors and second on developing a weighting scheme and framework to
guide policy discussions. The need for the latter should be apparent since all
of these factors are likely to influence R&D decisions. Moreover, factors
have very different policy implications. For example:
·
R&D facilities to
support manufacturing either to provide technical support for processes or
product development may be desirable (contrary to notions from the popular
press) particularly in the case of item 2, where both the manufacturing and
R&D sites represent market expansion (as opposed to reallocation of production).
·
Items 3 and 4 are
perhaps the most surprising and troubling if, in fact, they are driving R&D
decisions in many industries. As noted in item 3, several members gave examples
of areas in the physical sciences where the preeminent expertise in now located
outside the United States. Others, particularly representatives of electronics
companies, cited increasing difficulties in dealing with US universities as a
reason for increased collaboration with universities elsewhere and location of
major R&D facilities to facilitate collaboration.
·
Since the last round of
the WTO, with the extensive revision of trade related intellectual property,
and a phase in of patent protection in developing countries, it would not be
surprising to find that an increased ability to protect intellectual property
developed outside the United States is an important factor. Moreover, such a
response would be the desired response to improvements in the multilateral
policy environment.
·
Items 5-8 represent
other policies, most of which are examples of discriminatory policies that may
be troublesome. For example, research restrictions on stem cell research will
likely influence not only current, but also future R&D, as it may affect
the future supply of scientists in this area.
It is
anticipated that the factors relevant to basic research location may be
different than those for applied research or development, and that the factoral
weights may also differ depending on industry sector. Finally, the survey and subsequent analysis will need to consider
current R&D decisions compared with historical outsourcing of R&D (as
many companies located research facilities offshore in the 1960s and 70s). One
of the important results of the study will be a better understanding of whether
the movement towards greater R&D outsourcing in the last decade or two has
been "incremental" or whether it is "accelerating" in
intensity.
The survey design and
analysis will be contracted to Emory University and the Georgia Institute of
Technology, with Jerry Thursby and Marie Thursby, professors of economics and
strategic management, respectively, as principal investigators. The project is
envisioned as a 2 year project with the first year devoted primarily to survey
design and administration, as well as preparation of an interim report of
results. The second year will be devoted to statistical and policy analysis.
As part of the survey design process,
individual CTOs/CEOs and key executives responsible for relocation decisions will
be asked to preview the questions to ensure they are unambiguous to the
intended survey respondents and can elicit a meaningful response (cognitive
testing). The survey will be developed as a telephone instrument to achieve
optimal response rate and maximize accuracy of the data. Current plans are each
phone interview to last approximately 30 minutes and to be professionally coded
for efficient data collection and analysis.
Firm identity will be kept strictly confidential by the investigators.
Respondents will be recruited from the
Industrial Research Institute (IRI), whose members comprise over 240 R&D
performing companies in the U.S. and abroad. IRIs Board has approved
involvement in the project and Ross Armbrecht, IRI President, has held preliminary
discussions with leadership of the European Industrial Research Management
Association (EIRMA), with over 100 members, regarding participation by European
companies. Direct involvement in this initiative by the leadership of IRI and
EIRMA will help ensure high survey response rates, as will peer pressure from
the GUIRR corporate membership, many of whom are also members of IRI.
Survey data will be augmented with data from the
Census Survey of Industrial Research and Development in order to allow econometric
analysis which controls for various firm
characteristics (e.g., firm size, research intensity, etc.) in analysis of
responses. A portion of these data are confidential and application to the BEA
for access will be made. As we noted, any presentation of results will be done
in such a manner as to protect confidentiality of the respondents.