School of Public Economics and Administration
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
207 Fenghuang Bldg
777 Guoding Rd, Shanghai
Institutional Affiliation: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|October 2019||Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China's VAT Reform|
with Zhao Chen, Xian Jiang, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, Daniel Xu: w26336
A universal fact of firm-level data is that investment is lumpy: firms either replace a considerable fraction of their existing capital (spike) or do not invest at all (inaction). This paper incorporates the lumpy nature of investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behavior. We show that tax policy can directly impact the lumpiness of investment and that the effectiveness of tax incentives in stimulating investment depends crucially on interactions with investment frictions. We illustrate these results by studying one of the largest tax incentives for investment in recent history: China's 2009 VAT reform. Using administrative tax data and a difference-in-differences design, we document that the reform increased investment by 36% and that this effect is driven by additi...
|June 2018||Notching R&D Investment with Corporate Income Tax Cuts in China|
with Zhao Chen, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, Daniel Yi Xu: w24749
We study a Chinese policy that awards substantial tax cuts to firms with R&D investment over a threshold, or notch. Quasi-experimental variation and administrative tax data show that firms significantly increase reported R&D, and that relabeling of expenses accounts for 30% of this increase. Accounting for relabeling is crucial to obtain unbiased estimates of the productivity effects of real R&D and to quantify the fiscal costs of stimulating R&D. We estimate a 9.8% productivity-to-R&D elasticity using a structural model of investment and relabeling. Policy simulations show that selection into the program and relabeling costs determine the cost-effectiveness of stimulating R&D.