Thomas J. Sargent

Department of Economics
New York University
19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor
New York, NY 10012
Tel: 612/373-4383
Fax: 650/723-1687

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
NBER Program Affiliations: EFG
NBER Affiliation: Research Associate
Institutional Affiliation: New York University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2020Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections
with George J. Hall: w27115
April 2020Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy
with Marco Bassetto: w27004

Published: Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, vol 12(1).

April 2019Macroeconomic Uncertainty Prices when Beliefs are Tenuous
with Lars Peter Hansen: w25781
June 2018Inequality, Business Cycles, and Monetary-Fiscal Policy
with Anmol Bhandari, David Evans, Mikhail Golosov: w24710
December 2017Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address
with Robert E. Hall: w24148

Published: Robert E. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2018. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol 32(1), pages 121-134. citation courtesy of

February 2016Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty
with Lars P. Hansen: w22000
December 2015A History of U.S. Debt Limits
with George J. Hall: w21799

Published: Brief history of US debt limits before 1939 George J. Hall, Thomas J. Sargent Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2018, 115 (12) 2942-2945; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1719687115

September 2013Taxes, Debts, and Redistributions with Aggregate Shocks
with Anmol Bhandari, David Evans, Mikhail Golosov: w19470
May 2013Fiscal Discriminations in Three Wars
with George J. Hall: w19008

Published: Hall, George J. & Sargent, Thomas J., 2014. "Fiscal discriminations in three wars," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 148-166. citation courtesy of

February 2010How Sweden's Unemployment Became More Like Europe's
with Lars Ljungqvist
in Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden, Richard B. Freeman, Birgitta Swedenborg and Robert Topel, editors
January 2010Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics
with George J. Hall: w15702

Published: George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July. citation courtesy of

January 2008Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.
with Timothy Cogley, Giorgio E. Primiceri: w13749

Published: Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January. citation courtesy of

May 2007Do Taxes Explain European Employment? Indivisible Labor, Human Capital, Lotteries, and Savings
with Lars Ljungqvist
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, Daron Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Woodford, editors
October 2006The Conquest of South American Inflation
with Noah Williams, Tao Zha: w12606

Published: Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04. citation courtesy of

June 2005A, B, C's (and D)'s for Understanding VARs
with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Juan Rubio-Ramirez: t0308

Published: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Thomas J. Sargent, and Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026.

January 2005Politics and Efficiency of Separating Capital and Ordinary Government Budgets
with Marco Bassetto: w11030

Published: Marco Bassetto & Thomas J Sargent, 2006. "Politics and Efficiency of Separating Capital and Ordinary Government Budgets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(4), pages 1167-1210, November. citation courtesy of

September 2004Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
with Noah Williams, Tao Zha: w10764

Published: Sargent, Thomas, Noah Williams and Tao Zha. "Shocks And Government Beliefs: The Rise And Fall Of American Inflation," American Economic Review, 2006, v96(4,Sep), 1193-1224. citation courtesy of

January 2002Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics
with Timothy Cogley
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, Ben S. Bernanke and Kenneth Rogoff, editors
January 1997Taxes and Subsidies in Swedish Unemployment
with Lars Ljungqvist
in The Welfare State in Transition: Reforming the Swedish Model, Richard B. Freeman, Robert Topel, and Birgitta Swedenborg, editors
January 1993A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections
with Danny Quah
in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, editors
October 1990Recursive Linear Models of Dynamic Economies
with Lars Peter Hansen: w3479


1982The Ends of Four Big Inflations
in Inflation: Causes and Effects, Robert E. Hall, editor
1976Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research
in Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 3, NBER
July 1973What Do Regressions of Interest on Inflation Show?
in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 3, Sanford V. Berg, editor
1971Expectations at the Short End of the Yield Curve: An Application of Macaulay's Test
in Essays on Interest Rates, Volume 2, Jack M. Guttentag, editor
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