Department of Health Management and Policy
3215 Market Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104
Institutional Affiliation: Drexel University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|November 2017||Service-level Selection: Strategic Risk Selection in Medicare Advantage in Response to Risk Adjustment|
with Anirban Basu, Norma Coe, Fahad Khalil: w24038
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has phased in the Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) risk adjustment model during 2004-2006 to more accurately estimate capitated payments to Medicare Advantage (MA) plans to reflect each beneficiary’s health status. However, it is debatable whether the CMS-HCC model has led to strategic evolutions of risk selection. We examine the competing claims and analyze the risk selection behavior of MA plans in response to the CMS-HCC model. We find that the CMS-HCC model reduced the phenomenon that MA plans avoid high-cost beneficiaries in traditional Medicare plans, whereas it led to increased disenrollment of high-cost beneficiaries, conditional on illness severity, from MA plans. We explain this phenomenon in relation to service-level se...