NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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J. Scott Davis

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Research Department
2200 North Pearl Street
Dallas, TX 75201

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

NBER Working Papers and Publications

April 2019Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows
with Giorgio Valente, Eric van Wincoop: w25721
While prior to the global financial crisis the empirical international capital flow literature has focused on net capital flows (the current account), since the crisis there has been an increased focus on gross flows. In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus inflows) and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model. We find evidence of two global factors, which we call the GFC (global financial cycle) factor and commodity price factor as they closely track respectively the Miranda-Agrippino and Rey asset price factor and an average of oil and gas prices. These factors together account for half the variance of gross flows in advanced countries and forty percent of the variance of gross flows in emerging markets. But remarkably, ...
March 2019Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy
with Michael B. Devereux: w25710
The use of international capital flow controls has become increasingly popular in academic and policy circles. But almost all the recent literature studies the case of a small economy, ignoring the spillover effects of capital controls to the rest of the world. This paper re-examines the case for capital controls in a large open economy, where domestic financial constraints may bind following a large negative shock. We consider both ex-ante capital controls (prudential) and ex-post controls (crisis management). In a large open economy, there is a tension between the desire to tax capital inflows to manipulate the terms-of-trade and tax capital outflows for either prudential or crisis management purposes. When capital controls are chosen non-cooperatively, we show that ex-post capital contr...
August 2017Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows
with Eric van Wincoop: w23671
We document that the correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 128 advanced and developing countries. We provide evidence that this is a result of an increase in financial globalization (stock of external assets and liabilities). This dominates the effect of an increase in trade globalization (exports plus imports), which reduces the correlation between capital inflows and outflows. In the context of a two-country model with 14 shocks we show that the theoretical impact of financial and trade globalization on the correlation between capital inflows and outflows is consistent with the data.

Published: J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, . citation courtesy of

February 2013Distribution Capital and the Short- and Long-Run Import Demand Elasticity
with Mario J. Crucini: w18753
The elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods is one of the most important parameters in international economics. The international macro literature, which is primarily concerned with short-run business cycle fluctuations, assigns a low value to this parameter. The international trade literature, which is more concerned with long-run changes in trade flows following a change in relative prices, assigns a high value to this parameter. This paper constructs a model where this discrepancy between the short- and long-run elasticities is due to frictions in distribution. Goods need to be combined with a local non-traded input, distribution capital, which is good specific. Home and foreign goods may be close substitutes, but if distribution capital is slow to adjust then agents c...

Published: Crucini, Mario J. & Davis, J. Scott, 2016. "Distribution capital and the short- and long-run import demand elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 203-219. citation courtesy of

 
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