NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Sanjay R. Singh

Department of Economics
University of California at Davis
1122, SSH
1 Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616

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Institutional Affiliation: University of California at Davis

NBER Working Papers and Publications

April 2020Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
with Òscar Jordà, Alan M. Taylor: w26934
How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 15 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real...
January 2020The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
with Òscar Jordà, Alan M. Taylor: w26666
Is the effect of monetary policy on the productive capacity of the economy long lived? Yes, in fact we find such impacts are significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) merged data from two new international historical databases; (2) identification of exogenous monetary policy using the macroeconomic trilemma; and (3) improved econometric methods. Notably, the capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) exhibit hysteresis, but labor does not. Money is non-neutral for a much longer period of time than is customarily assumed. A New Keynesian model with endogenous TFP growth can reconcile all these empirical observations.
October 2016Log-linear Approximation versus an Exact Solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian Model
with Gauti B. Eggertsson: w22784
How accurate is a log-linear approximation of the New Keynesian model when the nominal interest rate is bounded by zero? This paper compares the solution of the exact non-linear model to the log-linear approximation. It finds that the difference is modest. This applies even for extreme events in numerical experiments that replicate the U.S. Great Depression. The exact non-linear model makes the same predictions as the log-linear approximation for key policy questions such as the size and sign of government spending and tax multipliers. It also replicates well known paradoxes like the paradox of toil and the paradox of price flexibility. The paper also reconciles different findings reported in the literature using Calvo versus Rotemberg pricing.

Published: Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sanjay R. Singh, 2019. "Log-linear approximation versus an exact solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, . citation courtesy of

June 2016A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
with Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Lawrence H. Summers: w22299
Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries as opposed to lower interest rates. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor with output gains in one country coming at the expense of the other. Similarly, we find that competitiveness policies in...

Published: Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Sanjay R. Singh & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 581-634, November. citation courtesy of

 
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