Kenan-Flagler Business School
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Campus Box #3490
Chapel Hill, NC 27559
NBER Program Affiliations:
NBER Affiliation: Research Associate
Institutional Affiliation: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|September 2019||Business Cycles and Currency Returns|
with Steven J. Riddiough, Lucio Sarno: w26299
We find a strong link between currency excess returns and the relative strength of the business cycle. Buying currencies of strong economies and selling currencies of weak economies generates high returns both in the cross section and time series of countries. These returns stem primarily from spot exchange rate predictability, are uncorrelated with common currency investment strategies, and cannot be understood using traditional currency risk factors in either unconditional or conditional asset pricing tests. We also show that a business cycle factor implied by our results is priced in a broad currency cross section.
|November 2018||Volatility Risk Pass-through|
with Mariano Max Croce, Yang Liu, Ivan Shaliastovich: w25276
We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50% (a 1% increase in output volatility increases consumption volatility by 0.5%) and it increases to 70% for shocks originating in smaller countries. The equity volatility pass-through is 90%, whereas the link between volatility of currency and fundamentals is weak. A novel channel of risk sharing of volatility risks can explain our empirical findings.