Institute for Economic and Social History
Vienna University of Economics and Business
Geb. D4, 3. Stock
Institutional Affiliation: Vienna University of Economics and Business
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2020||The Impact of Interwar Protection: Evidence from India|
with Vellore Arthi, Ashwin R Nair, Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke: w27178
Research on the quantitative impact of interwar protection on trade flows remains scarce, and much of it has concluded that the impact was surprisingly small. In this paper we ask: Did Indian interwar protection hurt UK manufacturers, by raising tariffs on manufactured imports? Or did it favour UK interests, by discriminating against “foreign” (i.e. non- British) producers? We answer this question by quantifying the impact of trade policy on the value and composition of Indian imports, using novel disaggregated data on both trade policies and imports for 114 commodity categories coming from 42 countries. Indian trade elasticities were generally larger than those in the United Kingdom at the same time. We find that even though Indian protection lowered total imports, it substantially booste...
|March 2020||International Transactions: Real Trade and Factor Flows between 1700 and 1870|
with Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue: w26865
This paper describes broad regional and temporal trends in the evolution of international trade and international factor flows between 1700 and 1870, including key differences in trade costs across space and time. We find trade links in Western Europe and the European colonies of North America intensified at the same time these regions experienced the initial industrial revolution and the spread of industrialization, which led to sustained economic growth. At the same time, global differences in specialization and income emerged. To understand the contribution of global market forces, as well as colonialism to these differences, the chapter lays out theoretical reasons for links between trade and economic growth and examines related historical arguments and evidence. We conclude that trade...
|January 2018||The Anatomy of a Trade Collapse: The UK, 1929-33|
with Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke: w24252
A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply to trade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodity specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see to what extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession resembled each other. It also compares the free trading trade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, to see to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the Great Depression, mattered for UK trade pat...
|February 2017||When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in Interwar Britain|
with Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke: w23164
International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK’s imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain’s shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot.