Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|November 2017||Household Inequality and the Consumption Response to Aggregate Real Shocks|
with Gene Amromin, Mariacristina De Nardi: w24073
To what extent does household inequality affect the response of aggregate consumption to aggregate real shocks? We first review two state-of-the-art papers with household heterogeneity and aggregate uncertainty. They teach us that having a larger fraction of poor and borrowing constrained households, who have a high marginal propensity to consume, amplifies the drop in aggregate consumption in response to a negative aggregate real shock. We then move on to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and Equifax data to quantify the fraction of people that are constrained in their consumption choices and to study how that fraction has changed before and after the Great Recession. We argue that the role of constraints cannot be adequately captured by only having a large share of households wit...
|August 2017||The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries|
with Daniel Aaronson, Rajeev Dehejia, Andrew Jordan, Cristian Pop-Eleches, Cyrus Samii: w23717
Using a compiled dataset of 441 censuses and surveys between 1787 and 2015, representing 103 countries and 48.4 million mothers, we find that: (1) the effect of fertility on labor supply is typically indistinguishable from zero at low levels of development and large and negative at higher levels of development; (2) the negative gradient is stable across historical and contemporary data; and (3) the results are robust to identification strategies, model specification, and data construction and scaling. Our results are consistent with changes in the sectoral and occupational structure of female jobs and a standard labor-leisure model.