Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance
Shanghai Jiaotong University
Institutional Affiliation: Shanghai Jiaotong University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|July 2016||Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation|
with , : w22402
Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape.
Published: Patrick Higgins & Tao Zha & Wenna Zhong, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, . citation courtesy of