NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Karen Zhong

Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance
Shanghai Jiaotong University
China

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Shanghai Jiaotong University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2016Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
with Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha: w22402
Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape.

Published: Patrick Higgins & Tao Zha & Wenna Zhong, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, . citation courtesy of

 
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