Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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Atlanta, GA 30309
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 2020||Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model|
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This paper presents a procedure for estimating and forecasting disease scenarios for COVID-19 using a structural SIR model of the pandemic. Our procedure combines the flexibility of noteworthy reduced-form approaches for estimating the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic to date with the benefits of a simple SIR structural model for interpreting these estimates and constructing forecast and counterfactual scenarios. We present forecast scenarios for a devastating second wave of the pandemic as well as for a long and slow continuation of current levels of infections and daily deaths. In our counterfactual scenarios, we find that there is no clear answer to the question of whether earlier mitigation measures would have reduced the long run cumulative death toll from this disease. In some ca...
|October 2019||The Wife’s Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage|
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The 19th and 20th centuries saw a transformation in contraceptive technologies and their take up. This led to a sexual revolution, which witnessed a rise in premarital sex and out-of-wedlock births, and a decline in marriage. The impact of contraception on married and single life is analyzed here both theoretically and quantitatively. The analysis is conducted using a model where people search for partners. Upon finding one, they can choose between abstinence, a premarital sexual relationship, and marriage. The model is confronted with some stylized facts about premarital sex and marriage over the course of the 20th century. Some economic history is also presented.
|November 2007||Measuring the Welfare Gain from Personal Computers: A Macroeconomic Approach|
with : w13592
The welfare gain to consumers from the introduction of personal computers is estimated here. A simple model of consumer demand is formulated that uses a slightly modified version of standard preferences. The modification permits marginal utility, and hence total utility, to be finite when the consumption of computers is zero. This implies that the good won't be consumed at a high enough price. It also bounds the consumer surplus derived from the product. The model is calibrated/estimated using standard national income and product account data. The welfare gain from the introduction of personal computers is in the range of 2 to 3 percent of consumption expenditure.
Published: JEREMY GREENWOOD & KAREN A. KOPECKY, 2013. "MEASURING THE WELFARE GAIN FROM PERSONAL COMPUTERS," Economic Inquiry, vol 51(1), pages 336-347.