NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Jon Samuels

Bureau of Economic Analysis
Suitland, MD

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Bureau of Economic Analysis

NBER Working Papers and Publications

November 2017Educational Attainment and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth
with Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho
in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth, Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey, editors
Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.
July 2016Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth
with Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho: w22453
Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.
June 2015The Accumulation of Human and Nonhuman Capital, Revisited
with Barbara M. Fraumeni, Michael S. Christian: w21284
In the 25 years since Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1989) published their first article on human capital, the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) and the SNA have changed significantly. The contribution of this paper is two-fold: Creation of a contemporary set of accounts which integrate human capital measures into the latest comprehensive revision of the U.S. national income accounts and an analysis of trends in human capital and national income account aggregates over the post-war period. The paper is a national income accounting paper with production and factor outlay, income, receipt and expenditure, capital accumulation , and wealth accounts. All of these accounts are tied to the NIPA accounts, and supplemented with human capital estimates. A key feature of the human capital a...

Published: Barbara M. Fraumeni & Michael S. Christian & Jon D. Samuels, 2017. "The Accumulation of Human and Nonhuman Capital, Revisited," Review of Income and Wealth, vol 63, pages S381-S410.

 
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