NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

George O. Aragon

Arizona State University
Tempe, AZ

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2018Do Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly? Evidence from VIX Futures Markets
with Rajnish Mehra, Sunil Wahal: w24575
The VIX index is not traded on the spot market. Hence, in contrast to other futures markets, the VIX futures contract and spot index are not linked by a no-arbitrage condition. We examine (a) whether predictability in the VIX index carries over to the futures market, and (b) whether there is independent time series predictability in VIX futures prices. The answer to both questions is no. Samuelson (1965) was right: VIX futures prices properly anticipate predictability in volatility, and are themselves unpredictable.
September 2009Hedge Funds as Liquidity Providers: Evidence from the Lehman Bankruptcy
with Philip E. Strahan: w15336
Using the September 15, 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as an exogenous shock to funding costs, we show that hedge funds act as liquidity providers. Hedge funds using Lehman as prime broker could not trade after the bankruptcy, and these funds failed twice as often as otherwise-similar funds after September 15 (but not before). Stocks traded by the Lehman-connected hedge funds in turn experienced greater declines in market liquidity following the bankruptcy than other stocks; and, the effect was larger for ex ante illiquid stocks. We conclude that shocks to traders' funding liquidity reduce the market liquidity of the assets that they trade.

Published: H EDGE F UNDS AS L IQUIDITY P ROVIDERS : E VIDENCE FROM THE L EHMAN B ANKRUPTCY , 2012, Journal of Financial Economics 103(3), 570-87, with George O. Aragon.

 
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