Survey Research Center
Univeristy of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Institutional Affiliation: University of Michigan
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|November 2018||Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle|
with John Ameriks, Minjoon Lee, Matthew D. Shapiro: w25269
This paper jointly estimates the relationship between stock share and expectations and risk preferences. The survey allows individual-level, quantitative estimates of risk tolerance and of the perceived mean and variance of stock returns. These estimates have economically and statistically significant association for the distribution of stock shares with relative magnitudes in proportion with the predictions of theories. Incorporating survey measurement error in the estimation model increases the estimated associations twofold, but they are still substantially attenuated being only about 5 percent of what benchmark finance theories predict. Because of the careful attention in the estimation to measurement error, the attenuation likely arises from economic behavior rather than errors in var...
|June 2014||Expectations, Aging and Cognitive Decline|
with Robert J. Willis
in Discoveries in the Economics of Aging, David A. Wise, editor
We use longitudinal data from the HRS to document general patterns in expectations with respect to aging in various domains and investigate the potential role of cognitive decline in those patterns. We focus on two aspects of expectations: optimism and uncertainty. We estimate the effect of age controlling for cohort, selection and calendar time effects. With the notable exception of survival expectations, we find that optimism decreases with age in most domains. Uncertainty appears to increase with age in most cases except for survival expectations, but these findings are less robust. Using methods that minimize the likelihood of spurious associations due to survey noise, we show that cognitive decline plays a modest but statistically significant role in explaining the decline of optimism...
|November 2011||Household Stock Market Beliefs and Learning|
with Robert J. Willis: w17614
This paper characterizes heterogeneity of the beliefs of American households about future stock market returns, provides an explanation for that heterogeneity and establishes its relationship to stock holding behavior. We find substantial belief heterogeneity that is puzzling since households can observe the same publicly available information about the stock market. We propose a simple learning model where agents can invest in the acquisition of financial knowledge. Differential incentives to learn about the returns process can explain heterogeneity in beliefs. We check this explanation by using data on beliefs elicited as subjective probabilities and a rich set of other variables from the Health and Retirement Study. Both descriptive statistics and estimated relevant heterogeneity of the...
|October 2001||Trade in University Training: Cross-State Variation in the Production and Use of College-Educated Labor|
with John Bound, Jeffrey Groen, Sarah Turner: w8555
The main question addressed in this analysis is how the production of undergraduate and graduate education at the state level affects the local stock of university-educated workers. The potential mobility of highly skilled workers implies that the number of college students graduating in an area need not affect the number of college graduates living in the area. However, the production of relatively large numbers of college and university graduates in an area may lead to increases in the employment of university-trained manpower if local industries expand production of goods that use college-educated workers intensively. Using data from the U.S., we find a modest link between the production and use of BA degree recipients; states awarding relatively large numbers of BA degrees in each coho...
Published: John Bound & Jeffrey Groen & Gábor Kézdi & Sarah Turner, 2004. "Trade in university training: cross-state variation in the production and stock of college-educated labor," Journal of Econometrics, vol 121(1-2), pages 143-173.