NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Felipe Saffie

Department of Economics
University of Maryland
4115E Tydings Hall
College Park, MD 20742

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of Maryland

NBER Working Papers and Publications

April 2018The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles
with Felipe Benguria, Sergio UrzĂșa: w24560
We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy. Higher commodity prices increase domestic demand (wealth channel), disproportionately benefiting nonexporters, and induce wage increases (cost channel) especially among unskilled workers, hurting unskilled-intensive industries. By exploiting regional variation in exposure to commodity price shocks and administrative firm-level data from Brazil, we empirically disentangle these transmission channels. We introduce a dynamic model with heterogeneous firms and workers to further quantify the mechanisms and evaluate welfare. The cost channel explains two-thirds of intersectoral labor reallocation, and the wealth channel explains two-thirds of the labor reallocation between exporters and non-exporters. Lab...
 
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