Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2019||Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit|
with Benjamin Pugsley, Ayşegül Şahin: w25874
We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the startup rate. It was caused by a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely pre-determined by demographics. This channel explains roughly two-thirds of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average growth over the lifecycle have been little changed. We show these results in a standard model of firm dynamics and test the mechanism using shocks to labor supply growth across states. Finally, we show that a longer startup rate series imputed using historical establishment tabulations rises over the 1960-70s period of accelerating labor force growth.
|January 2015||What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?|
with Fatih Guvenen, Serdar Ozkan, Jae Song: w20913
We study the evolution of individual labor earnings over the life cycle using a large panel data set of earnings histories drawn from U.S. administrative records. Using fully nonparametric methods, our analysis reaches two broad conclusions. First, earnings shocks display substantial deviations from lognormality---the standard assumption in the incomplete markets literature. In particular, earnings shocks display strong negative skewness and extremely high kurtosis---as high as 30 compared with 3 for a Gaussian distribution. The high kurtosis implies that in a given year, most individuals experience very small earnings shocks, and a small but non-negligible number experience very large shocks. Second, these statistical properties vary significantly both over the life cycle and with the ear...
|October 2013||Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects|
with Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman: w19499
Equilibrium labor market theory suggests that unemployment benefit extensions affect unemployment by impacting both job search decisions by the unemployed and job creation decisions by employers. The existing empirical literature focused on the former effect only. We develop a new methodology necessary to incorporate the measurement of the latter effect. Implementing this methodology in the data, we find that benefit extensions raise equilibrium wages and lead to a sharp contraction in vacancy creation, employment, and a rise in unemployment.