NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Dylan G. Rassier

Bureau of Economic Analysis
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NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2018Multinational Profit Shifting and Measures throughout Economic Accounts
with Jennifer Bruner, Kim J. Ruhl: w24915
Profit shifting to low-tax countries imposes challenges for the treatment of multinational enterprises in economic accounts. Using adjustments for profit shifting calculated in Guvenen et al. (2017) under an alternative measurement methodology, this paper empirically demonstrates how the effects of profit shifting cascade throughout a fully articulated set of economic accounts for the United States in 2014. We find a 1.5 percent and 3.5 percent increase in measured U.S. gross domestic product and operating surplus, respectively, and a 33.5 percent decrease in measured income receivable from the rest of world. As a result of offsetting effects, measured U.S. gross national saving decreases by 0.8 percent, and national borrowing increases by 6.9 percent. There are also potentially signif...
March 2018Multinational Profit Shifting and Measures throughout Economic Accounts
with Jennifer Bruner, Kim J. Ruhl
in The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, Nadim Ahmad, Brent Moulton, J. David Richardson, and Peter van de Ven, editors
April 2017Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
with Fatih Guvenen, Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr., Kim J. Ruhl: w23324
Official statistics display a significant slowdown in U.S. aggregate productivity growth that begins in 2004. We show how offshore profit shifting by U.S. multinational enterprises affects GDP and, thus, productivity measurement. Under international statistical guidelines, profit shifting causes part of U.S. production generated by multinationals to be excluded from official measures of U.S. production. Profit shifting has increased significantly since the mid-1990s, resulting in lower measures of U.S. aggregate productivity growth. We construct an alternative measure of value added that adjusts for profit shifting. The adjustments raise aggregate productivity growth rates by 0.09 percent annually for 1994-2004, 0.24 percent annually for 2004-2008, and lowers annual aggregate productivity ...
 
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