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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2018||Does E-Cigarette Advertising Encourage Adult Smokers to Quit?|
with Dhaval M. Dave, Michael Grossman, Donald S. Kenkel, Henry Saffer: w24277
Only recently introduced into the U.S. market, e-cigarettes have been aggressively promoted, and use is increasing rapidly among both adults and youths. At the heart of the regulatory debate are fundamental questions regarding whether e-cigarettes will draw cigarette smokers away from a dangerous habit or lure new initiates into tobacco use. We provide some of the first causal evidence on whether e-cigarette advertising on television and in magazines (which comprise about 90% of total media spending on e-cigarettes) encourage adult smokers to quit. We find that the answer to this question is a yes for TV advertising but no for magazine advertising. Our results indicate that a policy to ban TV advertising of e-cigarettes would have reduced the number of smokers who quit in the recent pa...
|January 2018||E-cigarettes and Adult Smoking|
with Henry Saffer, Dhaval Dave, Michael Grossman: w24212
Over the past few years, adult use of e-cigs has been increasing while adult smoking has been declining. Although there is a negative time correlation, it is important to determine if there is a causal effect of e-cig use on smoking. This is important because of the known health hazards associated with smoking. A key concern with most prior studies of e-cigs and smoking is that causality between e-cig use and cigarette use is ignored. One contribution of this paper is to estimate structural and reduced form equations that replace e-cig use with e-cig price in order to avoid this endogeneity problem. The data employed to estimate the empirical models come from the Tobacco Use Supplements (TUS). These data are from the combined July 2014, January 2015 and May 2015 waves of the TUS. Th...