NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Christopher Kurz

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Board

NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2019Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data
with Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas
in Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro
This paper combines information from two sources of U.S. private payroll employment to increase the accuracy of real-time measurement of the labor market. The sources are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from BLS and microdata from the payroll processing firm ADP. We briefly describe the ADP-derived data series, compare it to the BLS data, and describe an exercise that benchmarks the data series to an employment census. The CES and the ADP employment data are each derived from roughly equal-sized samples. We argue that combining CES and ADP data series reduces the measurement error inherent in both data sources. In particular, we infer “true” unobserved payroll employment growth using a state-space model and find that the optimal predictor of the unobserved state puts approximately ...
Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data
with Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas: w26033
This paper combines information from two sources of U.S. private payroll employment to increase the accuracy of real-time measurement of the labor market. The sources are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from BLS and microdata from the payroll processing firm ADP. We briefly describe the ADP-derived data series, compare it to the BLS data, and describe an exercise that benchmarks the data series to an employment census. The CES and the ADP employment data are each derived from roughly equal-sized samples. We argue that combining CES and ADP data series reduces the measurement error inherent in both data sources. In particular, we infer “true” unobserved payroll employment growth using a state-space model and find that the optimal predictor of the unobserved state puts approxima...
March 2018Comment on "Accounting for Globalisation: Frameworks for Integrated International Economic Accounts"
in The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, Nadim Ahmad, Brent Moulton, J. David Richardson, and Peter van de Ven, editors
January 2008Trade, Production Sharing, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
with Ariel Burstein, Linda Tesar: w13731
Countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations. We use data on trade flows between US multinationals and their affiliates as well as trade between the United States and Mexican maquiladoras to measure production-sharing trade and its link with the business cycle. We then develop a quantitative model of international business cycles that generates a positive link between the extent of vertically integrated production-sharing trade and internationally synchronized business cycles. A key assumption in the model is a relatively low elasticity of substitution between home and foreign inputs in the production of the vertically integrated good.

Published: Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May. citation courtesy of

 
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