NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers on International Finance and Macroeconomics

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2017
w23401 Oleg Itskhoki
Dmitry Mukhin

Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
w23407 Laura Alfaro
Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Ugo Panizza

Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets
w23409 Javier Cravino
Andrei A. Levchenko

The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations
w23385 Alberto Alesina
Omar Barbiero
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Matteo Paradisi

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence
w23391 Christopher L. House
Ana-Maria Mocanu
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases
w23394 Kewei Hou
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Replicating Anomalies
w23359 Fabio Castiglionesi
Fabio Feriozzi
Guido Lorenzoni

Financial Integration and Liquidity Crises
w23363 Philippe Bacchetta
Eric van Wincoop

Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns
w23370 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default
w23341 Woo Jin Choi
Alan M. Taylor

Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate
w23327 Takatoshi Ito
Masahiro Yamada

Did the Reform Fix the London Fix Problem?
w23324 Fatih Guvenen
Raymond J. Mataloni
Jr.
Dylan G. Rassier
Kim J. Ruhl

Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
w23332 Lorenzo Caliendo
Fernando Parro
Aleh Tsyvinski

Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy
w23312 Mark Aguiar
Satyajit Chatterjee
Harold Cole
Zachary Stangebye

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal
w23314 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Luigi Bocola

Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity
w23316 Falk Bräuning
Victoria Ivashina

Monetary Policy and Global Banking
w23293 Vahid Gholampour
Eric van Wincoop

What can we Learn from Euro-Dollar Tweets?
w23304 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Rupal Kamdar

The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
w23266 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
w23267 Yin-Wong Cheung
Menzie D. Chinn
Antonio Garcia Pascual
Yi Zhang

Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies
w23280 Jorge Abad
Marco D'Errico
Neill Killeen
Vera Luz
Tuomas Peltonen
Richard Portes
Teresa Urbano

Mapping the Interconnectedness between EU Banks and Shadow Banking Entities
w23245 Nuno Coimbra
Hélène Rey

Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries
w23246 Raphael A. Auer
Andrei A. Levchenko
Philip Sauré

International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
w23251 Assaf Razin
Globalization Policies and Israel's Brain Drain
w23223 Assaf Razin
Globalized Israel: High Tech Prowess and Buttressing FDI
w23235 Patrick J. Kehoe
Elena Pastorino

Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions
w23206 Joel Hasbrouck
Richard M. Levich

FX Market Metrics: New Findings Based on CLS Bank Settlement Data
w23210 Assaf Razin
Israel's Immigration Story: Globalization Lessons
w23217 Ellen R. McGrattan
Andrea Waddle

The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production
w23169 Enrique Alberola
Gianluca Benigno

Revisiting the Commodity Curse: A Financial Perspective
w23205 Tamim Bayoumi
Barry Eichengreen

Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist
w23191 Robin Greenwood
Andrei Shleifer
Yang You

Bubbles for Fama
w23204 Sebastian Edwards
The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of The Great Depression: A "Change of Regime" Analysis
w23170 Wenxin Du
Alexander Tepper
Adrien Verdelhan

Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity
w23172 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
w23175 John D. Burger
Francis E. Warnock
Veronica Cacdac Warnock

Currency Matters: Analyzing International Bond Portfolios
w23140 Mert Demirer
Francis X. Diebold
Laura Liu
Kamil Yılmaz

Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness
w23141 Sebastian Edwards
Keynes and the Dollar in 1933
w23143 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?
w23149 Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Julian di Giovanni
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mehmet Fatih Ulu

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
w23147 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
w23151 Julio A. Carrillo
Enrique G. Mendoza
Victoria Nuguer
Jessica Roldán-Peña

Tight Money-Tight Credit: Coordination Failure in the Conduct of Monetary and Financial Policies
w23152 Alexander Wagner
Richard J. Zeckhauser
Alexandre Ziegler

Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade
w23158 Martin Eichenbaum
Benjamin K. Johannsen
Sergio Rebelo

Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates
w23135 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?
w23134 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?
w23124 Geert Bekaert
Arnaud Mehl

On the Global Financial Market Integration "Swoosh" and the Trilemma
w23133 Peter Chen
Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

The Global Rise of Corporate Saving
w23109 Roger E.A. Farmer
Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory
w23116 Stefan Avdjiev
Bryan Hardy
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Luis Servén

Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns
w23061 Assaf Razin
Israel's Triumph over Inflation: The Long and Winding Road
w23065 Karen K. Lewis
Edith X. Liu

Disaster Risk and Asset Returns: An International Perspective
w23074 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Large and State-Dependent Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
w23037 Douglas A. Irwin
The Missing Bretton Woods Debate over Flexible Exchange Rates
w23055 Douglas W. Diamond
Yunzhi Hu
Raghuram G. Rajan

Pledgeability, Industry Liquidity, and Financing Cycles
2016
w22990 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Patrick J. Kehoe

Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility
w23004 Anton Korinek
Currency Wars or Efficient Spillovers? A General Theory of International Policy Cooperation
w23010 Gur Aminadav
Elias Papaioannou

Corporate Control around the World
w22971 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Adjustment to Small, Large, and Sunspot Shocks in Open Economies With Stock Collateral Constraints
w22974 Robert C. Johnson
Guillermo Noguera

A Portrait of Trade in Value Added over Four Decades
w22943 Camila Casas
Federico J. Díez
Gita Gopinath
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Dominant Currency Paradigm
w22948 Laurence Ball
Anusha Chari
Prachi Mishra

Understanding Inflation in India
w22874 Claudia M. Buch
Linda Goldberg

Cross-Border Prudential Policy Spillovers: How Much? How Important? Evidence from the International Banking Research Network
w22863 Alberto Alesina
Gualtiero Azzalini
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Armando Miano

Is it the "How" or the "When" that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?
w22866 Martín Uribe
Is The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant?
w22868 Enrique G. Mendoza
Macroprudential Policy: Promise and Challenges
w22872 Joshua Aizenman
Yin-Wong Cheung
Hiro Ito

The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives
w22838 Martin Guzman
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Pseudo-wealth and Consumption Fluctuations
w22847 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Hugo Hopenhayn
Iván Werning

Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity
w22844 Kris James Mitchener
Gonçalo Pina

Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard
w22812 Xuehui Han
Shang-Jin Wei

International Transmissions of Monetary Shocks: Between a Trilemma and a Dilemma
w22820 Takatoshi Ito
Masahiro Yamada

Puzzles in the Forex Tokyo "Fixing": Order Imbalances and Biased Pricing by Banks
w22819 Graciela L. Kaminsky
International Borrowing Cycles: A New Historical Database
w22833 Andrés Fernández
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
w22801 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song

The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion
w22806 Matthieu Chavaz
Andrew K. Rose

Political Borders and Bank Lending in Post-Crisis America
w22789 Edward Glaeser
Wei Huang
Yueran Ma
Andrei Shleifer

A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics
w22790 Tarek A. Hassan
Thomas M. Mertens
Tony Zhang

Currency Manipulation
w22747 David S. Jacks
Se Yan
Liuyan Zhao

Silver Points, Silver Flows, and the Measure of Chinese Financial Integration
w22751 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment
w22755 Takatoshi Ito
A New Financial Order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?
w22758 Richard H. Clarida
Ildikó Magyari

International Financial Adjustment in a Canonical Open Economy Growth Model
w22737 Joshua Aizenman
Menzie D. Chinn
Hiro Ito

Balance Sheet Effects on Monetary and Financial Spillovers: The East Asian Crisis Plus 20
w22741 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating?
w22743 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
w22694 Luigi Bocola
Alessandro Dovis

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis
w22695 Matthew Baron
Wei Xiong

Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk
w22699 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak
Huanhuan Zheng

House Valuations and Economic Growth: Some International Evidence
w22705 Marina Azzimonti
The Politics of FDI Expropriation
w22663 Pedro Brinca
V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen McGrattan

Accounting for Business Cycles
w22678 Andrew K. Rose
Why Do Estimates of the EMU Effect On Trade Vary so Much?
w22645 Jose Berrospide
Ricardo Correa
Linda Goldberg
Friederike Niepmann

International Banking and Cross-border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from the United States
w22650 Kaiji Chen
Patrick Higgins
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

China Pro-Growth Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission
w22618 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Hélène Rey

Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound
w22614 Patrick Kehoe
Elena Pastorino
Virgiliu Midrigan

Debt Constraints and Employment
w22615 Francis X. Diebold
Frank Schorfheide
Minchul Shin

Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
w22592 Wenxin Du
Carolin E. Pflueger
Jesse Schreger

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy
w22594 Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi
Louphou Coulibaly

Financial Safety Nets
w22557 Gregori Galofré-Vilà
Martin McKee
Christopher M. Meissner
David Stuckler

The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement
w22563 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure
w22564 Johannes F. Schmieder
Till von Wachter

The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: New Evidence and Interpretation
w22567 Assaf Razin
Steven Rosefielde

Israel and the 1990-2015 Global Developments: Riding with the Global Flows and Weathering the Storms
w22576 Jacob Boudoukh
Jordan Brooks
Matthew Richardson
Zhikai Xu

The Complexity of Liquidity: The Extraordinary Case of Sovereign Bonds
w22533 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

The I Theory of Money
w22535 Guillermo A. Calvo
From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII
w22538 Arnaud Costinot
Dave Donaldson
Margaret Kyle
Heidi Williams

The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market Effect
w22539 Yin-Wong Cheung
Menzie Chinn
Xin Nong

Estimating Currency Misalignment Using the Penn Effect: It's Not as Simple As It Looks
w22506 Craig Benedict
Mario J. Crucini
Anthony Landry

On What States Do Prices Depend? Answers From Ecuador
w22509 Pablo D'Erasmo
Enrique G. Mendoza

Optimal Domestic (and External) Sovereign Default
w22481 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Is Optimal Capital-Control Policy Countercyclical In Open-Economy Models With Collateral Constraints?
w22489 Jordi Galí
Tommaso Monacelli

Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection
w22498 Javier Cravino
Andrei A. Levchenko

Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission
w22460 Kan Chen
Mario Crucini

Trends and Cycles in Small Open Economies: Making The Case For A General Equilibrium Approach
w22466 Vahagn Galstyan
Philip R. Lane
Caroline Mehigan
Rogelio Mercado

The Holders and Issuers of International Portfolio Securities
w22444 Eduardo Dávila
Anton Korinek

Pecuniary Externalities in Economies with Financial Frictions
w22388 Olivier Blanchard
Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls
w22377 Roberto Chang
Andrés Fernández
Adam Gulan

Bond Finance, Bank Credit, and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Open Economy
w22368 Antonio Ciccone
Elias Papaioannou

Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models Using Benchmark Industry Characteristics
w22370 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Thomas Philippon
Dimitri Vayanos

The Analytics of the Greek Crisis
w22361 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Juan Passadore

Are State and Time Dependent Models Really Different?
w22349 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Jesse Schreger

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?
w22329 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka

Migration and Redistribution: Why the Federal Governance of an Economic Union Matters
w22330 Harold Cole
Daniel Neuhann
Guillermo Ordoñez

Debt Crises: For Whom the Bell Tolls
w22334 Jingting Fan
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Emergence of Asia: Reforms, Corporate Savings, and Global Imbalances
w22335 Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake
w22336 Marina Azzimonti
Does Partisan Conflict Deter FDI Inflows to the US?
w22343 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

Macro, Money and Finance: A Continuous Time Approach
w22304 Carlos A. Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

Unsticking the Flypaper Effect Using Distortionary Taxation
w22298 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Reverse Speculative Attacks
w22297 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination
w22299 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Sanjay R. Singh
Lawrence H. Summers

A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
w22307 Kristin Forbes
Dennis Reinhardt
Tomasz Wieladek

The Spillovers, Interactions, and (Un)Intended Consequences of Monetary and Regulatory Policies
w22283 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Alessandro Rebucci

Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?
w22295 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

A Model of the International Monetary System
w22264 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Multiple Equilibria in Open Economy Models with Collateral Constraints: Overborrowing Revisited
w22268 Joshua Aizenman
Hiro Ito

East Asian Economies and Financial Globalization In the Post-Crisis World
w22270 Benjamin Hébert
Jesse Schreger

The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina
w22271 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Konstantin Milbradt

A Model of Safe Asset Determination
w22224 Gianluca Benigno
Huigang Chen
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci
Eric R. Young

Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A Pecuniary Externality Perspective
w22191 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka

How Migration Can Change Income Inequality?
w22196 Robert E. Hall
Understanding the Decline in the Safe Real Interest Rate
w22198 Nicholas Ford
Charles Yuji Horioka

The 'Real' Explanation of the PPP Puzzle
w22169 Nicola Cetorelli
Linda S. Goldberg

Organizational Complexity and Balance Sheet Management in Global Banks
w22175 Mario J. Crucini
Gregor W. Smith

Distance and Time Effects in Swedish Commodity Prices, 1732-1914
w22147 Michael E. Waugh
B. Ravikumar

Measuring Openness to Trade
w22153 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Wensi Xie

Corporate Resilience to Banking Crises: The Roles of Trust and Trade Credit
w22161 Zhi Da
Borja Larrain
Clemens Sialm
José Tessada

Coordinated Noise Trading: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations
w22125 Mark Aguiar
Satyajit Chatterjee
Harold Cole
Zachary Stangebye

Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises
w22128 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms in the Time of Imbalance
w22133 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

On the Optimal Inflation Rate
w22139 Olivier Jeanne
Damiano Sandri

Optimal Reserves in Financially Closed Economies
w22142 Alberto F. Cavallo
Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-Channel Retailers
w22111 Alberto Cavallo
Roberto Rigobon

The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research
w22119 Mary Amiti
Oleg Itskhoki
Jozef Konings

International Shocks and Domestic Prices: How Large Are Strategic Complementarities?
w22097 Joshua Aizenman
Optimal Currency Area: A 20th Century Idea For the 21st Century?
w22103 Alberto Cavallo
Guillermo Cruces
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
w22081 Nicholas Ford
Charles Yuji Horioka

The "Real" Explanation of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle
w22056 Weerachart T. Kilenthong
Robert M. Townsend

A Market Based Solution for Fire Sales and Other Pecuniary Externalities
w22059 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Fiscal and Financial Crises
w22017 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Konstantin Milbradt

What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets?
w22023 Hanno Lustig
Adrien Verdelhan

Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?
w22044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand
w22005 Diego Anzoategui
Diego Comin
Mark Gertler
Joseba Martinez

Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence
w22008 Gary Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

Good Booms, Bad Booms
w21979 Paul R. Bergin
Reuven Glick
Jyh-Lin Wu

Conditional PPP and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area
w21981 Anya Kleymenova
Andrew K. Rose
Tomasz Wieladek

Does Government Intervention Affect Banking Globalization?
w21984 Paolo Bertoletti
Federico Etro
Ina Simonovska

International Trade with Indirect Additivity
w21993 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Luis Garicano
Philip Lane
Marco Pagano
Ricardo Reis
Tano Santos
David Thesmar
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Dimitri Vayanos

The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies
w21956 Martin Beraja
Erik Hurst
Juan Ospina

The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles
w21954 Takatoshi Ito
Japanization: Is it Endemic or Epidemic?
w21955 Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

Financial Frictions and Unconventional Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies
w21958 Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
w21977 Urban J. Jermann
Financial Markets' Views about the Euro-Swiss Franc Floor
w21935 Doireann Fitzgerald
Stefanie Haller
Yaniv Yedid-Levi

How Exporters Grow
w21938 Shin-ichi Fukuda
Strong Sterling Pound and Weak European Currencies in the Crises: Evidence from Covered Interest Parity of Secured Rates
w21948 Alessandro Dovis
Mikhail Golosov
Ali Shourideh

Political Economy of Sovereign Debt: A Theory of Cycles of Populism and Austerity
w21920 Zhiguo He
Bryan Kelly
Asaf Manela

Intermediary Asset Pricing: New Evidence from Many Asset Classes
w21878 Jeffrey A. Frankel
International Coordination
w21884 Barry Eichengreen
Romain Lafarguette
Arnaud Mehl

Cables, Sharks and Servers: Technology and the Geography of the Foreign Exchange Market
w21885 Julian di Giovanni
Andrei A. Levchenko
Isabelle Mejean

The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement
w21897 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

Monetary Policy According to HANK
w21898 Jonathan Heathcote
Fabrizio Perri

On the Desirability of Capital Controls
w21840 Jose Asturias
Sewon Hur
Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl

The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms
w21843 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops
w21847 Konrad B. Burchardi
Thomas Chaney
Tarek A. Hassan

Migrants, Ancestors, and Investments
w21852 Hélène Rey
International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma

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