NBER Papers on International Finance and Macroeconomics

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w24400 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows
w24404 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

Accounting for Factorless Income
w24367 Sebastian Edwards
Keynes on the Sequencing of Economic Policy: Recovery and Reform in 1933
w24346 Grace Xing Hu
Jun Pan
Jiang Wang

Chinese Capital Market: An Empirical Overview
w24353 Alessandro Barattieri
Matteo Cacciatore
Fabio Ghironi

Protectionism and the Business Cycle
w24362 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low
w24320 Nelson Camanho
Harald Hau
Hélène Rey

Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates
w24322 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel
w24325 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective
w24330 Shang-Jin Wei
Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature
w24336 Enrique G. Mendoza
Eugenio I. Rojas

Positive and Normative Implications of Liability Dollarization for Sudden Stops Models of Macroprudential Policy
w24342 Matthieu Bussiere
Menzie D. Chinn
Laurent Ferrara
Jonas Heipertz

The New Fama Puzzle
w24292 Alberto Cavallo
W. Erwin Diewert
Robert C. Feenstra
Robert Inklaar
Marcel P. Timmer

Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries
w24283 Assaf Razin
Israel's Immigration Story: Winners and Losers
w24286 Linda S. Goldberg
Signe Krogstrup

International Capital Flow Pressures
w24241 Ron Alquist
Nicolas Berman
Rahul Mukherjee
Linda Tesar

Financial Constraints, Institutions, and Foreign Ownership
w24258 Daniel R. Feenberg
Clinton Tepper
Ivo Welch

Are Interest Rates Really Low?
w24266 Grace Weishi Gu
Eswar Prasad

New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S.
w24230 Zheng Michael Song
Wei Xiong

Risks in China's Financial System
w24234 Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide
w24195 Michael D. Bordo
Robert N. McCauley

Triffin: dilemma or myth?
w24204 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka

International Tax Reforms with Flexible Prices
w24184 Shang-Jin Wei
Jing Zhou

Quality of Public Governance and the Capital Structure of Nations and Firms
w24165 Anna M. Stansbury
Lawrence H. Summers

Productivity and Pay: Is the link broken?
w24149 John B. Taylor
Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy
w24143 David Hirshleifer
Chong Huang
Siew Hong Teoh

Model Uncertainty, Ambiguity Aversion, and Market Participation
w24145 Barry Eichengreen
Arnaud J. Mehl
Livia Chitu

Mars or Mercury? The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice
w24152 Anton Korinek
Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An Externality View
w24112 Òscar Jordà
Katharina Knoll
Dmitry Kuvshinov
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
w24122 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Walker Ray

The Effects of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury Auctions
w24126 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics
w24132 Eduardo Dávila
Ansgar Walther

Does Size Matter? Bailouts with Large and Small Banks
w24105 Joshua Aizenman
Menzie D. Chinn
Hiro Ito

Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies
w24093 Mario J. Crucini
Nam T. Vu

Did the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Help Those Most in Need? A County-Level Analysis
w24108 Anusha Chari
Ryan Leary
Toan Phan

The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico
w24068 Olivier J. Blanchard
Mitali Das

A New Index of Debt Sustainability
w24071 Justin R. Pierce
Peter K. Schott

Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Plants
w24059 Charles Engel
Dohyeon Lee
Chang Liu
Chenxin Liu
Steve Pak Yeung Wu

The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules
w24027 Robert C. Johnson
Measuring Global Value Chains
w24031 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Sandra Lizarazo

Sovereign Risk Contagion
w23993 Lars E.O. Svensson
What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting
w23984 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Financial Crises and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies
w23985 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Stefan Nagel
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels
w23988 Emine Boz
Gita Gopinath
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Global Trade and the Dollar
w23994 Amine Ouazad
Romain Rancière

City Equilibrium with Borrowing Constraints: Structural Estimation and General Equilibrium Effects
w23960 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound
w23968 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Identification in Macroeconomics
w23975 Graciela L. Kaminsky
The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles
w23977 Martín Uribe
The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan
w23942 Alessandro Dovis
Rishabh Kirpalani

Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments
w23950 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak
Nam Ngo
Ilan Noy

Vocational Education, Manufacturing, and Income Distribution: International Evidence and Case Studies
w23921 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry
Racha Moussa

Does Capital Scarcity Matter?
w23864 Tamon Asonuma
Dirk Niepelt
Romain Rancière

Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity
w23886 Valentin Haddad
Serhiy Kozak
Shrihari Santosh

Predicting Relative Returns
w23841 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Andrea Ferrero
Alessandro Rebucci

International Credit Supply Shocks
w23835 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel Mihalache

Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions
w23836 Fabio Ghironi
Macro Needs Micro
w23764 Kimberly A. Berg
Nelson Mark

Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns
w23773 Hanno Lustig
Robert J. Richmond

Gravity in FX R-Squared: Understanding the Factor Structure in Exchange Rates
w23795 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Where Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong
w23800 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Wensi Xie

The Origins of Financial Development: How the African Slave Trade Continues to Influence Modern Finance
w23805 Annette Alstadsæter
Niels Johannesen
Gabriel Zucman

Who Owns the Wealth in Tax Havens? Macro Evidence and Implications for Global Inequality
w23755 Mark D. Flood
Dror Y. Kenett
Robin L. Lumsdaine
Jonathan K. Simon

The Complexity of Bank Holding Companies: A Topological Approach
w23746 Marek Jarociński
Bartosz Maćkowiak

Monetary-Fiscal Interactions and the Euro Area's Malaise
w23747 Benjamin Bernard
Agostino Capponi
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Bail-ins and Bail-outs: Incentives, Connectivity, and Systemic Stability
w23754 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Ayako Saiki

Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Reporton a 1-Month or 12-month Basis?
w23759 Wenxin Du
Joanne Im
Jesse Schreger

The U.S. Treasury Premium
w23726 Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy
Donggyu Sul
Nelson Mark
Jyh-Lin Wu

Identifying Exchange Rate Common Factors
w23685 Francis X. Diebold
Laura Liu
Kamil Yilmaz

Commodity Connectedness
w23694 Greg Kaplan
Kurt Mitman
Giovanni L. Violante

The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
w23699 Eugenio Cerutti
Stijn Claessens
Andrew K. Rose

How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows
w23705 Javier Cravino
Samuel E. Haltenhof

Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares
w23713 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka

Migration-Induced Redistribution with and without Migrant's Voting
w23716 Thomas Drechsel
Silvana Tenreyro

Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
w23643 Christian Fons-Rosen
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Bent E. Sorensen
Carolina Villegas-Sanchez
Vadym Volosovych

Foreign Investment and Domestic Productivity: Identifying Knowledge Spillovers and Competition Effects
w23651 Elena Gerko
Hélène Rey

Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital
w23663 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Systematic Managed Floating
w23671 J. Scott Davis
Eric van Wincoop

Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows
w23628 John D. Burger
Francis E. Warnock
Veronica Cacdac Warnock

The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets
w23598 Zhuo Chen
Zhiguo He
Chun Liu

The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes
w23612 Patrick Bolton
Haizhou Huang

The Capital Structure of Nations
w23614 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy
w23620 Itzik Fadlon
David Laibson

Paternalism and Pseudo-Rationality
w23572 Jonas Heipertz
Amine Ouazad
Romain Rancière
Natacha Valla

Balance-Sheet Diversification in General Equilibrium: Identification and Network Effects
w23565 Stefan Avdjiev
Leonardo Gambacorta
Linda S. Goldberg
Stefano Schiaffi

The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity
w23559 Dani Rodrik
Populism and the Economics of Globalization
w23562 Richard H. Clarida
The Global Factor in Neutral Policy Rates: Some Implications for Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, and Policy Coordination
w23536 Mary Amiti
Patrick McGuire
David E. Weinstein

Supply- and Demand-side Factors in Global Banking
w23546 Nittai K. Bergman
Rajkamal Iyer
Richard T. Thakor

The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis
w23515 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics
w23494 SeHyoun Ahn
Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Thomas Winberry
Christian Wolf

When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality
w23503 Javier Cravino
Sebastian Sotelo

Trade Induced Structural Change and the Skill Premium
w23467 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak
Gemma Estrada
Shu Tian

Flexibility of Adjustment to Shocks: Economic Growth and Volatility of Middle-Income Countries Before and After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
w23474 Anusha Chari
Karlye Dilts Stedman
Christian Lundblad

Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows
w23440 Maurice Obstfeld
Alan M. Taylor

International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously
w23456 Pol Antràs
Alonso de Gortari

On the Geography of Global Value Chains
w23401 Oleg Itskhoki
Dmitry Mukhin

Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
w23407 Laura Alfaro
Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Ugo Panizza

Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets
w23409 Javier Cravino
Andrei A. Levchenko

The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations
w23385 Alberto Alesina
Omar Barbiero
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Matteo Paradisi

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence
w23391 Christopher L. House
Ana-Maria Mocanu
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases
w23394 Kewei Hou
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Replicating Anomalies
w23359 Fabio Castiglionesi
Fabio Feriozzi
Guido Lorenzoni

Financial Integration and Liquidity Crises
w23363 Philippe Bacchetta
Eric van Wincoop

Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns
w23370 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default
w23341 Woo Jin Choi
Alan M. Taylor

Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate
w23327 Takatoshi Ito
Masahiro Yamada

Did the Reform Fix the London Fix Problem?
w23324 Fatih Guvenen
Raymond J. Mataloni
Dylan G. Rassier
Kim J. Ruhl

Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
w23332 Lorenzo Caliendo
Fernando Parro
Aleh Tsyvinski

Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy
w23312 Mark Aguiar
Satyajit Chatterjee
Harold Cole
Zachary Stangebye

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal
w23314 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Luigi Bocola

Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity
w23316 Falk Bräuning
Victoria Ivashina

Monetary Policy and Global Banking
w23293 Vahid Gholampour
Eric van Wincoop

What can we Learn from Euro-Dollar Tweets?
w23304 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Rupal Kamdar

The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
w23266 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
w23267 Yin-Wong Cheung
Menzie D. Chinn
Antonio Garcia Pascual
Yi Zhang

Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies
w23280 Jorge Abad
Marco D'Errico
Neill Killeen
Vera Luz
Tuomas Peltonen
Richard Portes
Teresa Urbano

Mapping the Interconnectedness between EU Banks and Shadow Banking Entities
w23245 Nuno Coimbra
Hélène Rey

Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries
w23246 Raphael A. Auer
Andrei A. Levchenko
Philip Sauré

International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
w23251 Assaf Razin
Globalization Policies and Israel's Brain Drain
w23223 Assaf Razin
Globalized Israel: High Tech Prowess and Buttressing FDI
w23235 Patrick J. Kehoe
Elena Pastorino

Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions
w23206 Joel Hasbrouck
Richard M. Levich

FX Market Metrics: New Findings Based on CLS Bank Settlement Data
w23210 Assaf Razin
Israel's Immigration Story: Globalization Lessons
w23217 Ellen R. McGrattan
Andrea Waddle

The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production
w23169 Enrique Alberola
Gianluca Benigno

Revisiting the Commodity Curse: A Financial Perspective
w23205 Tamim Bayoumi
Barry Eichengreen

Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist
w23191 Robin Greenwood
Andrei Shleifer
Yang You

Bubbles for Fama
w23204 Sebastian Edwards
The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of The Great Depression: A "Change of Regime" Analysis
w23170 Wenxin Du
Alexander Tepper
Adrien Verdelhan

Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity
w23172 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
w23175 John D. Burger
Francis E. Warnock
Veronica Cacdac Warnock

Currency Matters: Analyzing International Bond Portfolios
w23140 Mert Demirer
Francis X. Diebold
Laura Liu
Kamil Yılmaz

Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness
w23141 Sebastian Edwards
Keynes and the Dollar in 1933
w23143 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?
w23149 Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Julian di Giovanni
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mehmet Fatih Ulu

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
w23147 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
w23151 Julio A. Carrillo
Enrique G. Mendoza
Victoria Nuguer
Jessica Roldán-Peña

Tight Money-Tight Credit: Coordination Failure in the Conduct of Monetary and Financial Policies
w23152 Alexander Wagner
Richard J. Zeckhauser
Alexandre Ziegler

Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade
w23158 Martin Eichenbaum
Benjamin K. Johannsen
Sergio Rebelo

Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates
w23135 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?
w23134 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?
w23124 Geert Bekaert
Arnaud Mehl

On the Global Financial Market Integration "Swoosh" and the Trilemma
w23133 Peter Chen
Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

The Global Rise of Corporate Saving
w23109 Roger E.A. Farmer
Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory
w23116 Stefan Avdjiev
Bryan Hardy
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Luis Servén

Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns
w23061 Assaf Razin
Israel's Triumph over Inflation: The Long and Winding Road
w23065 Karen K. Lewis
Edith X. Liu

Disaster Risk and Asset Returns: An International Perspective
w23074 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments
w23037 Douglas A. Irwin
The Missing Bretton Woods Debate over Flexible Exchange Rates
w23055 Douglas W. Diamond
Yunzhi Hu
Raghuram G. Rajan

Pledgeability, Industry Liquidity, and Financing Cycles

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