NBER Papers on Economic Fluctuations and Growth

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w23685 Francis X. Diebold
Laura Liu
Kamil Yilmaz

Commodity Connectedness
w23687 Jan De Loecker
Jan Eeckhout

The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications
w23688 Russell Cooper
Moritz Meyer
Immo Schott

The Employment and Output Effects of Short-Time Work in Germany
w23693 John Haltiwanger
Henry Hyatt
Erika McEntarfer

Who Moves Up the Job Ladder?
w23694 Greg Kaplan
Kurt Mitman
Giovanni L. Violante

The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
w23701 Raphaël Franck
Oded Galor

Industrial Development and Long-Run Prosperity
w23704 João F. Gomes
Marco Grotteria
Jessica A. Wachter

Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults
w23706 Andreas Fuster
Stephanie H. Lo
Paul S. Willen

The Time-Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market
w23707 Mark Gertler
Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan
w23712 Filip Novokmet
Thomas Piketty
Gabriel Zucman

From Soviets to Oligarchs: Inequality and Property in Russia, 1905-2016
w23716 Thomas Drechsel
Silvana Tenreyro

Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
w23725 Jasmina Arifovic
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Learning to Live in a Liquidity Trap
w23647 Thorsten Drautzburg
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo Guerrón-Quintana

Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations
w23652 Andrew Caplin
Mark Dean
John Leahy

Rationally Inattentive Behavior: Characterizing and Generalizing Shannon Entropy
w23654 Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti
Anil Kashyap

Which Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks?
w23655 Bruce D. Meyer
James X. Sullivan

Consumption and Income Inequality in the U.S. Since the 1960s
w23658 François Gourio
Anil K. Kashyap
Jae Sim

The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind
w23665 Scott R. Baker
Stephanie Johnson
Lorenz Kueng

Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates
w23666 Lucia S. Foster
Cheryl A. Grim
John Haltiwanger
Zoltan Wolf

Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights
w23672 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Serena Ng

Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data
w23675 Seth G. Benzell
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Guillermo LaGarda

Simulating Business Cash Flow Taxation: An Illustration Based on the "Better Way" Corporate Tax Reform
w23636 Andrés Erosa
Luisa Fuster
Gueorgui Kambourov
Richard Rogerson

Hours, Occupations, and Gender Differences in Labor Market Outcomes
w23625 Victor Stango
Joanne Yoong
Jonathan Zinman

Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions
w23598 Zhuo Chen
Zhiguo He
Chun Liu

The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes
w23599 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Tano Santos

Institutions and Political Party Systems: The Euro Case
w23605 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination
w23606 Charles Angelucci
Simone Meraglia
Nico Voigtländer

The Medieval Roots of Inclusive Institutions: From the Norman Conquest of England to the Great Reform Act
w23608 Michael Bailey
Ruiqing (Rachel) Cao
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel
Arlene Wong

Measuring Social Connectedness
w23614 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy
w23616 Sumit Agarwal
J. Bradford Jensen
Ferdinando Monte

The Geography of Consumption
w23570 Efraim Benmelech
Adam Guren
Brian T. Melzer

Making the House a Home: The Stimulative Effect of Home Purchases on Consumption and Investment
w23577 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?
w23580 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Mauricio Ulate

The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
w23581 Giulia Brancaccio
Myrto Kalouptsidi
Theodore Papageorgiou

Geography, Search Frictions and Endogenous Trade Costs
w23583 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S.
w23586 Sebastian Di Tella
Optimal Regulation of Financial Intermediaries
w23592 Juan Carlos Conesa
Timothy J. Kehoe

Productivity, Taxes, and Hours Worked in Spain: 1970-2015
w23552 Mark Aguiar
Mark Bils
Kerwin Kofi Charles
Erik Hurst

Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men
w23533 Sun Ling Wang
Eldon Ball
Richard Nehring
Ryan Williams
Truong Chau

Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection
w23543 John G. Fernald
Robert E. Hall
James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
w23546 Nittai K. Bergman
Rajkamal Iyer
Richard T. Thakor

The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis
w23547 Robert E. Lucas

What Was the Industrial Revolution?
w23511 Bruce Carlin
William Mann

Finance, farms, and the Fed's early years
w23521 Francesco Bianchi
Giovanni Nicolò

A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models
w23512 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai K. Bergman

Credit Market Freezes
w23515 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics
w23520 C. Justin Cook
Jason M. Fletcher

High School Genetic Diversity and Later-life Student Outcomes: Micro-level Evidence from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study
w23485 John Haltiwanger
Henry Hyatt
Lisa B. Kahn
Erika McEntarfer

Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage
w23494 SeHyoun Ahn
Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Thomas Winberry
Christian Wolf

When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality
w23509 Aleh Tsyvinski
Nicolas Werquin

Generalized Compensation Principle
w23476 Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Hanno Lustig
Lei Zhang

Complex Asset Markets
w23480 Michael D. Bauer
James D. Hamilton

Robust Bond Risk Premia
w23456 Pol Antràs
Alonso de Gortari

On the Geography of Global Value Chains
w23448 Edward Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Tempered Particle Filtering
w23449 Anthony A. DeFusco
Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume
w23451 Adrien Auclert
Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel
w23457 Maryam Farboodi
Laura Veldkamp

Long Run Growth of Financial Technology
w23411 Elif C. Arbatli
Steven J. Davis
Arata Ito
Naoko Miake
Ikuo Saito

Policy Uncertainty In Japan
w23418 Charles F. Manski
Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise
w23419 Elias Albagli
Christian Hellwig
Aleh Tsyvinski

Imperfect Financial Markets and Shareholder Incentives in Partial and General Equilibrium
w23422 Diego Restuccia
Richard Rogerson

The Causes and Costs of Misallocation
w23423 Gideon Bornstein
Per Krusell
Sergio Rebelo

Lags, Costs, and Shocks: An Equilibrium Model of the Oil Industry
w23424 Ali Ozdagli
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market
w23429 James D. Hamilton
Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
w23401 Oleg Itskhoki
Dmitry Mukhin

Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
w23377 Kaiji Chen
Jue Ren
Tao Zha

The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
w23389 Juan Carlos Conesa
Daniela Costa
Parisa Kamali
Timothy J. Kehoe
Vegard M. Nygard
Gajendran Raveendranathan
Akshar Saxena

Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare
w23378 Margaret McMillan
Dani Rodrik
Claudia Sepulveda

Structural Change, Fundamentals and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies
w23379 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro
w23387 Michael E. Waugh
Firm Dynamics and Immigration: The Case of High-Skilled Immigration
w23391 Christopher L. House
Ana-Maria Mocanu
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases
w23394 Kewei Hou
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Replicating Anomalies
w23345 Denis Gorea
Virgiliu Midrigan

Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market
w23349 K.E. McConnell
Juha V. Siikamäki
V. Kerry Smith

A Strategy for Evaluating the Opportunity Cost of Time Estimates from New Choice Margins
w23354 Philippe Aghion
Nicholas Bloom
Brian Lucking
Raffaella Sadun
John Van Reenen

Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times
w23357 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Dmitri Koustas

Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases
w23368 Thomas Piketty
Li Yang
Gabriel Zucman

Capital Accumulation, Private Property and Rising Inequality in China, 1978-2015
w23369 David Byrne
Stephen Oliner
Daniel Sichel

Prices of High-Tech Products, Mismeasurement, and Pace of Innovation
w23370 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default
w23371 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song
Justin Weidner

Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades
w23339 José-María Da-Rocha
Marina Mendes Tavares
Diego Restuccia

Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Endogenous Establishment-Level Productivity
w23343 Stephen Broadberry
John Joseph Wallis

Growing, Shrinking, and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development
w23324 Fatih Guvenen
Raymond J. Mataloni
Dylan G. Rassier
Kim J. Ruhl

Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
w23332 Lorenzo Caliendo
Fernando Parro
Aleh Tsyvinski

Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy
w23323 Hunter Clark
Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

China's GDP Growth May be Understated
w23311 Eric T. Swanson
Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets
w23312 Mark Aguiar
Satyajit Chatterjee
Harold Cole
Zachary Stangebye

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal
w23314 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Luigi Bocola

Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity
w23321 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan

Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes
w23294 Mel Win Khaw
Ziang Li
Michael Woodford

Risk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias
w23301 Oded Galor
Marc Klemp

Roots of Autocracy
w23302 Adriano A. Rampini
S. Viswanathan

Financial Intermediary Capital
w23304 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Rupal Kamdar

The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
w23306 Martin S. Feldstein
Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity
w23266 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
w23270 Martin Beraja
Andreas Fuster
Erik Hurst
Joseph Vavra

Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
w23281 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets
w23283 Sang Yoon Lee
Yongseok Shin

Horizontal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy
w23285 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets
w23287 Òscar Jordà
Björn Richter
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
w23245 Nuno Coimbra
Hélène Rey

Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries
w23249 Juliane Begenau
Berardino Palazzo

Firm Selection and Corporate Cash Holdings
w23253 Joan Hamory Hicks
Marieke Kleemans
Nicholas Y. Li
Edward Miguel

Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata
w23254 Xavier Gabaix
David Laibson

Myopia and Discounting
w23221 Martin S. Feldstein
Why is Growth better in the United States than in other Industrial Countries
w23225 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions
w23226 Lu Zhang
The Investment CAPM
w23228 Ulrike Malmendier
Stefan Nagel
Zhen Yan

The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC
w23233 Ellen R. McGrattan
Intangible Capital and Measured Productivity
w23234 Maryam Farboodi
Gregor Jarosch
Robert Shimer

The Emergence of Market Structure
w23235 Patrick J. Kehoe
Elena Pastorino

Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions
w23207 Nathan Nunn
Raul Sanchez de la Sierra

Why Being Wrong can be Right: Magical Warfare Technologies and the Persistence of False Beliefs
w23216 Efraim Benmelech
Carola Frydman
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Financial Frictions and Employment during the Great Depression
w23217 Ellen R. McGrattan
Andrea Waddle

The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production
w23194 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
w23196 Jacob Moscona
Nathan Nunn
James A. Robinson

Keeping It in the Family: Lineage Organization and the Scope of Trust in Sub-Saharan Africa
w23197 Raphaël Franck
Oded Galor

Technology-Skill Complementarity in Early Phases of Industrialization
w23199 Quamrul H. Ashraf
Oded Galor

The Macrogenoeconomics of Comparative Development
w23202 Jose Asturias
Sewon Hur
Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl

Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth
w23172 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
w23176 Xavier Giroud
Holger M. Mueller

Firms' Internal Networks and Local Economic Shocks
w23182 Andreas Fagereng
Luigi Guiso
Luigi Pistaferri

Firm-Related Risk and Precautionary Saving Response
w23184 Lubos Pastor
Pietro Veronesi

Political Cycles and Stock Returns
w23185 Nir Jaimovich
Henry E. Siu

High-Skilled Immigration, STEM Employment, and Non-Routine-Biased Technical Change
w23186 Ulrich K. Müller
Mark W. Watson

Long-Run Covariability
w23163 Fatih Guvenen
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Jae Song
Motohiro Yogo

Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk
w23140 Mert Demirer
Francis X. Diebold
Laura Liu
Kamil Yılmaz

Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness
w23142 André Kurmann
Eric Sims

Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks
w23143 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?
w23145 David Rezza Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem
w23149 Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Julian di Giovanni
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mehmet Fatih Ulu

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
w23146 Raymond Owens III
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte

Rethinking Detroit
w23147 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
w23154 Andrew Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens
Morten O. Ravn

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
w23156 Roger E.A. Farmer
The End of Alchemy: A Review Essay
w23158 Martin Eichenbaum
Benjamin K. Johannsen
Sergio Rebelo

Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates
w23160 Olivier Blanchard
Guido Lorenzoni
Jean-Paul L'Huillier

Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis
w23167 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton

Bank Health Post-Crisis
w23132 Xinshen Diao
Margaret McMillan
Dani Rodrik

The Recent Growth Boom in Developing Economies: A Structural Change Perspective
w23127 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia: Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor Shares
w23128 Diego Restuccia
Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis

Land Misallocation and Productivity
w23129 Joel M. David
Venky Venkateswaran

Capital Misallocation: Frictions or Distortions?
w23137 Ufuk Akcigit
John Grigsby
Tom Nicholas

Immigration and the Rise of American Ingenuity
w23136 Sushant Acharya
Jess Benhabib
Zhen Huo

The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations
w23133 Peter Chen
Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

The Global Rise of Corporate Saving
w23095 Jess Benhabib
Jesse Perla
Christopher Tonetti

Reconciling Models of Diffusion and Innovation: A Theory of the Productivity Distribution and Technology Frontier
w23101 Benjamin Faber
Thibault Fally

Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data
w23102 Chinhui Juhn
Kristin McCue
Holly Monti
Brooks Pierce

Firm Performance and the Volatility of Worker Earnings
w23103 Jeremy Greenwood
Nezih Guner
Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Family Economics Writ Large
w23109 Roger E.A. Farmer
Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory
w23111 Daniel J. Benjamin
Kristen Cooper
Ori Heffetz
Miles S. Kimball

Challenges in Constructing a Survey-Based Well-Being Index
w23066 Francesco D’Acunto
Ryan Liu
Carolin Pflueger
Michael Weber

Flexible Prices and Leverage
w23074 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Large and State-Dependent Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
w23075 Robert J. Shiller
Narrative Economics
w23077 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation
w23081 Tom Vogl
Aggregating the Fertility Transition: Intergenerational Dynamics in Quality and Quantity
w23083 Thomas Philippon
Pierre Pessarossi
Boubacar Camara

Backtesting European Stress Tests
w23039 Tasso Adamopoulos
Loren Brandt
Jessica Leight
Diego Restuccia

Misallocation, Selection and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from China
w23047 Ufuk Akcigit
John Grigsby
Tom Nicholas

The Rise of American Ingenuity: Innovation and Inventors of the Golden Age
w23048 John Kennan
Open Borders in the European Union and Beyond: Migration Flows and Labor Market Implications
w23055 Douglas W. Diamond
Yunzhi Hu
Raghuram G. Rajan

Pledgeability, Industry Liquidity, and Financing Cycles
w23057 Victor Stango
Joanne Yoong
Jonathan Zinman

The Quest for Parsimony in Behavioral Economics: New Methods and Evidence on Three Fronts
w23030 Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market
w22990 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Patrick J. Kehoe

Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility
w23000 Shoumitro Chatterjee
Tom Vogl

Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run
w23004 Anton Korinek
Currency Wars or Efficient Spillovers? A General Theory of International Policy Cooperation
w23008 José-María Da-Rocha
Marina Mendes Tavares
Diego Restuccia

Firing Costs, Misallocation, and Aggregate Productivity
w23011 Joachim Hubmer
Per Krusell
Anthony A. Smith

The Historical Evolution of the Wealth Distribution: A Quantitative-Theoretic Investigation
w23014 Ricardo Reis
Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?
w22969 Michael Gelman
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Shachar Kariv
Dmitri Koustas
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman
Steven Tadelis

The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices
w22985 Christopher L. Foote
Lara Loewenstein
Paul S. Willen

Cross-Sectional Patterns of Mortgage Debt during the Housing Boom: Evidence and Implications
w22965 Peter A. Diamond
Ayşegül Şahin

Disaggregating the Matching Function
w22971 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Adjustment to Small, Large, and Sunspot Shocks in Open Economies With Stock Collateral Constraints
w22978 Mel Win Khaw
Luminita Stevens
Michael Woodford

Discrete Adjustment to a Changing Environment: Experimental Evidence
w22979 John H. Cochrane
Stepping on a Rake: Replication and Diagnosis
w22975 Rafael Di Tella
Julio J. Rotemberg

Populism and the Return of the "Paranoid Style": Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal
w22936 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Commitment vs. Flexibility with Costly Verification
w22938 Moira Daly
Dmytro Hryshko
Iourii Manovskii

Improving the Measurement of Earnings Dynamics
w22941 Guido Ascari
Louis Phaneuf
Eric Sims

Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse
w22943 Camila Casas
Federico J. Díez
Gita Gopinath
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Dominant Currency Paradigm
w22947 Wyatt J. Brooks
Joseph P. Kaboski
Yao Amber Li

Growth Policy, Agglomeration, and (the Lack of) Competition
w22948 Laurence Ball
Anusha Chari
Prachi Mishra

Understanding Inflation in India
w22953 Daniel Garcia-Macia
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Peter J. Klenow

How Destructive is Innovation?
w22958 Cosmin L. Ilut
Hikaru Saijo

Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles
w22954 Xavier Gabaix
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model
w22905 Tano Santos
Pietro Veronesi

Habits and Leverage
w22910 Raj Chetty
David Grusky
Maximilian Hell
Nathaniel Hendren
Robert Manduca
Jimmy Narang

The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940
w22915 R. Jason Faberman
Guido Menzio

Evidence on the Relationship between Recruiting and Starting Wage
w22918 Guido Matias Cortes
Nir Jaimovich
Henry E. Siu

Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why?
w22914 Erik Gilje
Robert Ready
Nikolai Roussanov

Fracking, Drilling, and Asset Pricing: Estimating the Economic Benefits of the Shale Revolution
w22878 Daniel Green
Brian T. Melzer
Jonathan A. Parker
Arcenis Rojas

Accelerator or Brake? Cash for Clunkers, Household Liquidity, and Aggregate Demand
w22882 Paolo Sodini
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Roine Vestman
Ulf von Lilienfeld-Toal

Identifying the Benefits from Home Ownership: A Swedish Experiment
w22883 Andreas Fagereng
Luigi Guiso
Luigi Pistaferri

Portfolio Choices, Firm Shocks and Uninsurable Wage Risk
w22891 Jon Cohen
Kinda Cheryl Hachem
Gary Richardson

Relationship Lending and the Great Depression: Measurement and New Implications
w22897 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Investment-less Growth: An Empirical Investigation
w22856 Jing Cynthia Wu
Ji Zhang

A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model
w22866 Martín Uribe
Is The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant?
w22838 Martin Guzman
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Pseudo-wealth and Consumption Fluctuations
w22837 Joseph E. Stiglitz
The Theory of Credit and Macro-economic Stability
w22840 Lorenz Kueng
Nicholas Li
Mu-Jeung Yang

The Impact of Emerging Market Competition on Innovation and Business Strategy
w22847 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Hugo Hopenhayn
Iván Werning

Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity
w22850 David Card
Ana Rute Cardoso
Jörg Heining
Patrick Kline

Firms and Labor Market Inequality: Evidence and Some Theory
w22851 Peter Diep
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Scott Richardson

Prepayment Risk and Expected MBS Returns
w22816 David Albouy
Gabriel Ehrlich
Yingyi Liu

Housing Demand, Cost-of-Living Inequality, and the Affordability Crisis
w22822 Andreas Fagereng
Luigi Guiso
Davide Malacrino
Luigi Pistaferri

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
w22825 Paul Beaudry
Dana Galizia
Franck Portier

Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis
w22827 Simon Gilchrist
Raphael Schoenle
Jae Sim
Egon Zakrajšek

Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis
w22831 Andreas Neuhierl
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence
w22833 Andrés Fernández
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
w22794 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas

Public Debt as Private Liquidity: Optimal Policy
w22800 Eric M. Leeper
Should Central Banks Care About Fiscal Rules?
w22801 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song

The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion
w22809 Pedro Bento
Diego Restuccia

Misallocation, Establishment Size, and Productivity
w22783 Daron Acemoglu
Ufuk Akcigit
William Kerr

Innovation Network
w22785 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge
w22787 Gary Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

Fighting Crises
w22789 Edward Glaeser
Wei Huang
Yueran Ma
Andrei Shleifer

A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics
w22790 Tarek A. Hassan
Thomas M. Mertens
Tony Zhang

Currency Manipulation
w22762 Brad Hershbein
Lisa B. Kahn

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings
w22761 Robert E. Hall
Ricardo Reis

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves
w22751 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment
w22734 Russell Cooper
Huacong Liu

Money or Grit? Determinants of MisMatch by Race and Gender
w22735 Alan S. Blinder
Michael Ehrmann
Jakob de Haan
David-Jan Jansen

Necessity as the Mother of Invention: Monetary Policy after the Crisis
w22740 Steven J. Davis
An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty
w22743 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
w22723 Sang Byung Seo
Jessica A. Wachter

Do Rare Events Explain CDX Tranche Spreads?
w22726 John Ameriks
Joseph Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Late-in-Life Risks and the Under-Insurance Puzzle
w22687 Yoko Niimi
Charles Yuji Horioka

The Impact of Intergenerational Transfers on Household Wealth Inequality in Japan and the United States
w22694 Luigi Bocola
Alessandro Dovis

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis
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Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges
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Mismatch Unemployment and the Geography of Job Search
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Simon Mongey
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Aggregate Recruiting Intensity
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Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World
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Nonlinear Tax Incidence and Optimal Taxation in General Equilibrium
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Product Switching and the Business Cycle
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China Pro-Growth Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission
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Capital Share Dynamics When Firms Insure Workers
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Long-Range Growth: Economic Development in the Global Network of Air Links
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Guido Schwerdt
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Coping with Change: International Differences in the Returns to Skills
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Hélène Rey

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Elena Pastorino
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Debt Constraints and Employment
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Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
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Tyler Muir

Mobile Collateral versus Immobile Collateral
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Amir Kermani

The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer
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Javier Bianchi
Louphou Coulibaly

Financial Safety Nets
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Ping He

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Collateralized Economy
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Mary C. Daly
John G. Fernald
Bart Hobijn

The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
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Martin Lettau
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Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation
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Pau S. Pujolas
Kim J. Ruhl

The Opportunity Costs of Entrepreneurs in International Trade
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Minchul Shin

Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Error Distance
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Ravi Bansal

Risk Preferences and The Macro Announcement Premium
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Dana Kiku
Marcelo Ochoa

Price of Long-Run Temperature Shifts in Capital Markets
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Yuliy Sannikov

The I Theory of Money
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Jón Steinsson
Patrick Sun
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The Elusive Costs of Inflation: Price Dispersion during the U.S. Great Inflation
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Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Johannes Wieland

Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation
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The FinTech Opportunity
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Is Optimal Capital-Control Policy Countercyclical In Open-Economy Models With Collateral Constraints?
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Tommaso Monacelli

Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection
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Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty
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International Evidence on Long Run Money Demand
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On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions
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Mario Crucini

Trends and Cycles in Small Open Economies: Making The Case For A General Equilibrium Approach
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David O. Lucca
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Taking Orders and Taking Notes: Dealer Information Sharing in Treasury Markets
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Bronwyn H. Hall

Depreciation of Business R&D Capital
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Mun S. Ho
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Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth
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Richard B. Freeman
Sari Pekkala Kerr

Weathering the Great Recession: Variation in Employment Responses by Establishments and Countries
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Anton Korinek

Pecuniary Externalities in Economies with Financial Frictions
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James D. Hamilton

Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics
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The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity
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Potential Unemployment Insurance Duration and Labor Supply: The Individual and Market-Level Response to a Benefit Cut
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Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario
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Philippe Wingender

Estimating Local Fiscal Multipliers
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Anna Orlik
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The Common Origin of Uncertainty Shocks
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Tao Zha
Karen Zhong

Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
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Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls
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Jósef Sigurdsson
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The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock
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Holger M. Mueller

Redistribution of Local Labor Market Shocks through Firms' Internal Networks
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Lawrence H. Summers

The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations
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Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy
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Elias Papaioannou

Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models Using Benchmark Industry Characteristics
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Thomas Philippon
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The Analytics of the Greek Crisis
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Martin Schneider

Housing and Macroeconomics
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Luigi Pistaferri

Consumption Network Effects
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Ricardo Reis

Optimal Automatic Stabilizers
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Fabrizio Perri

Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity
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Raffaella Sadun
John Van Reenen

Management as a Technology?
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Daniel Neuhann
Guillermo Ordoñez

Debt Crises: For Whom the Bell Tolls
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Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Inflation at the Household Level
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Christopher Huckfeldt
Antonella Trigari

Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires
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Neil R. Mehrotra
Sanjay R. Singh
Lawrence H. Summers

A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
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Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Reverse Speculative Attacks
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Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination
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Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data
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The Economics of "Radiator Springs:" Industry Dynamics, Sunk Costs, and Spatial Demand Shifts
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Household Risk Management
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Christopher R. Knittel
Konstantinos Metaxoglou
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Carbon Emissions and Business Cycles
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Matteo Maggiori

A Model of the International Monetary System
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Interpreting Recent Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions
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Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt
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Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

Social Networks and Housing Markets
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The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities
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Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles
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The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina
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A Model of Safe Asset Determination
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Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?
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Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models
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The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment
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Labor Supply in the Past, Present, and Future: a Balanced-Growth Perspective
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Newer Need Not be Better: Evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators Using Nighttime Lights
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Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A Pecuniary Externality Perspective
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Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data
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Pricing Assets in an Economy with Two Types of People
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Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps
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Giovanni L. Violante

Non-durable Consumption and Housing Net Worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from Easily Accessible Data
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Growth of income and welfare in the U.S, 1979-2011
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Financial Frictions in Production Networks
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Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models
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Katarína Borovičková
Robert Shimer

Decomposing Duration Dependence in a Stopping Time Model
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Neil R. Mehrotra
Lawrence H. Summers

Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy
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Technology, Skill and the Wage Structure
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Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model
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Adam Storeygard
Tim L. Squires
David N. Weil

The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade
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B. Ravikumar

Measuring Openness to Trade
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Ralf R. Meisenzahl
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The Real Effects of Liquidity During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Automobiles
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Robert E. Lucas
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Learning, Career Paths, and the Distribution of Wages
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Chen Lin
Wensi Xie

Corporate Resilience to Banking Crises: The Roles of Trust and Trade Credit
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Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks
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Daniel Sanches

Can Currency Competition Work?
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Loukas Karabarbounis

The Limited Macroeconomic Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions
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Satyajit Chatterjee
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Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises
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Romain Duval
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Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms in the Time of Imbalance
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The Discounted Euler Equation: A Note
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Matthias Doepke
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Clans, Guilds, and Markets: Apprenticeship Institutions and Growth in the Pre-Industrial Economy
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Yuliy Sannikov

On the Optimal Inflation Rate
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Pawel Zabczyk

The Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy
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Konstantin Platonov

Animal Spirits in a Monetary Model
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Joshua K. Hausman
Johannes F. Wieland

Supply-Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France
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Mu-Jeung Yang

Financial Dampening
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Lee E. Ohanian

Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics
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Scott Stern

The State of American Entrepreneurship: New Estimates of the Quantity and Quality of Entrepreneurship for 15 US States, 1988-2014
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Iván Werning

Mirrlees meets Diamond-Mirrlees
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Michèle Tertilt

Families in Macroeconomics
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Nicholas Li
Ralph Ossa
Mu-Jeung Yang

Accounting for the New Gains from Trade Liberalization
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Fabian Kindermann

Bargaining over Babies: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications
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Cristina Fuentes-Albero
Simon Gilchrist
Egon Zakrajšek

The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks
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Ellis W. Tallman

Too-Big-To-Fail Before the Fed
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Aleh Tsyvinski
Nicolas Werquin

Recursive Contracts and Endogenously Incomplete Markets
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Adrien Verdelhan

Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?
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Robert J. Shiller

Popular Attitudes towards Markets and Democracy: Russia and United States Compared 25 Years Later
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Ellis W. Tallman

How Did Pre-Fed Banking Panics End?
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Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand
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Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto
Jaume Ventura

Globalization and Political Structure
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The Social Value of Financial Expertise
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Iván Werning

Dynamic Savings Choices with Disagreements
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Guillermo Ordoñez

Good Booms, Bad Booms
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Sluggish Inflation Expectations: A Markov Chain Analysis
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Huacong Liu

MisMatch in Human Capital Accumulation
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Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation
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Federico Etro
Ina Simonovska

International Trade with Indirect Additivity
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Oren Levintal

Solution Methods for Models with Rare Disasters
w21956 Martin Beraja
Erik Hurst
Juan Ospina

The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles
w21967 Grey Gordon
Aaron Hedlund

Accounting for the Rise in College Tuition
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Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the U.S. Productivity Slowdown
w21928 Philippe Aghion
Ufuk Akcigit
Julia Cagé
William R. Kerr

Taxation, Corruption, and Growth
w21931 Greg Kaplan
Guido Menzio
Leena Rudanko
Nicholas Trachter

Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence and Theory
w21935 Doireann Fitzgerald
Stefanie Haller
Yaniv Yedid-Levi

How Exporters Grow
w21942 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth
w21948 Alessandro Dovis
Mikhail Golosov
Ali Shourideh

Political Economy of Sovereign Debt: A Theory of Cycles of Populism and Austerity
w21905 Ufuk Akcigit
Harun Alp
Michael Peters

Lack of Selection and Limits to Delegation: Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries
w21907 Stelios Michalopoulos
Louis Putterman
David N. Weil

The Influence of Ancestral Lifeways on Individual Economic Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa
w21914 David Lagakos
Benjamin Moll
Tommaso Porzio
Nancy Qian
Todd Schoellman

Life-Cycle Human Capital Accumulation Across Countries: Lessons From U.S. Immigrants
w21920 Zhiguo He
Bryan Kelly
Asaf Manela

Intermediary Asset Pricing: New Evidence from Many Asset Classes
w21924 Jess Benhabib
Alberto Bisin

Skewed Wealth Distributions: Theory and Empirics
w21871 Robert J. Barro
Tao Jin

Rare Events and Long-Run Risks
w21872 Robert J. Barro
Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China
w21874 Alexander Bick
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
David Lagakos

How do Hours Worked Vary with Income? Cross-Country Evidence and Implications
w21880 Kinda Cheryl Hachem
Zheng Michael Song

Liquidity Regulation and Credit Booms: Theory and Evidence from China
w21887 Claudia Olivetti
Barbara Petrongolo

The Evolution of Gender Gaps in Industrialized Countries
w21888 Robert J. Barro
Gordon Y. Liao

Options-Pricing Formula with Disaster Risk
w21890 Kaiji Chen
Jue Ren
Tao Zha

What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
w21892 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modelling of Financial Crises
w21896 Simon H. Boserup
Wojciech Kopczuk
Claus T. Kreiner

The Role of Bequests in Shaping Wealth Inequality: Evidence from Danish Wealth Records
w21897 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

Monetary Policy According to HANK
w21898 Jonathan Heathcote
Fabrizio Perri

On the Desirability of Capital Controls
w21840 Jose Asturias
Sewon Hur
Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl

The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms
w21843 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops
w21844 Francisco J. Buera
Ezra Oberfield

The Global Diffusion of Ideas
w21848 Xavier Gabaix
Behavioral Macroeconomics Via Sparse Dynamic Programming
w21856 Joseph Davis
Marc D. Weidenmier

America's First Great Moderation
w21861 Gene M. Grossman
Elhanan Helpman
Ezra Oberfield
Thomas Sampson

Balanced Growth Despite Uzawa
w21862 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Juan F. Rubio Ramírez
Frank Schorfheide

Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models
w21863 James D. Hamilton
Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts
w21864 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Johannes Wieland

Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles
w21866 Narayana Kocherlakota
Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models
w21867 Eric M. Leeper
Campbell Leith

Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon

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