NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Kevin E. Villani

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Working Papers

November 1983The Economics of Mortgage Terminations: Implications for Mortgage Lenders and Mortgage Terms
with Patric H. Hendershott, Sheng Cheng Hu: w0918
The paper begins with the development of models explaining the mortgage refinancing and assumption decisions of households Having identified the economic variables influencing these decisions, we then simulate the models for different values to determine under what conditions households will refinance or assume. Finally, we draw some implications of these results for: (1) the impact of a decline in mortgage rates on the asset portfolio yields of mortgage lending institutions and (2) the effect of the observed rise in interest rate volatility, including the optimal terminations response of mortgage borrowers, on the terms of the mortgage contract and the returns to mortgage lenders on recently issued mortgage loans.

Published: Hendershott, Patric H., Sheng Hu, and Kevin E. Villani. "The Economics of Mortgage Terminations: Implications for Mortgage Lender and Mortgage Terms."Housing Finance Review, Vol. 2, No. 2. (April 1983), pp. 127-142.

August 1981The Terminations Premium in Mortgage Coupon Rates: Evidence on the Integration of Mortgage and Bond Markets
with Patric H. Hendershott: w0738
During the Last three years mortgage rates have risen relative to yields on comparable maturity bonds. The questions addressed in the present paper are what is the extent of this increase and to what is it attributable? We find the increase between early 198 and early 1981 in coupon rates on GNMA mortgage pools relative to ''the" rate on a comparable portfolio of Treasury bonds to be about 100 basis points. We attribute the increase to a rise in the terminations premia built into mortgage coupon rates. The premia is the price borrowers are charged for the option to repay the mortgage when it is to their benefit (to refinance if interest rates decline). This price has risen in response to an increase in interest rate uncertainty. Our empirical results suggest that the increase is due to bot...

Published: Hendershott, Patric H. and Kevin E. Villani. "Measurement of Spreads between Yields on Various Mortgage Contracts and Treasury Securities." Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association, (Winter 1984), pp. 476-490. James Shilling added as co-author.

Housing Finance in the United States in the Year 2001
with Patric H. Hendershott: w0739
This paper proceeds as follows. We first identify the essential services provided by a financial system and then derive the characteristics of the system that would exist in a technologically advanced society unfettered by nonneutral taxes and regulations. Next we consider how taxes and regulations have shaped the existing American financial structure. Finally, we posit likely tax and regulatory changes and conjecture as to how technological innovation will further interact with these changes to alter the American financial system. Our basic contentions are that the tax and regulatory influences are eroding and that the system will eventually move toward the unfettered financial system described in the first section.

Published: in "North American Housing Markets into the 21st Century", edited by Gau and Goldberg. Aisterdam: North-Holland, (1983), pp . 181-202.

July 1981Savings and Loan Usage of the Authority to Invest in Corporate Debt
with Patric H. Hendershott: w0725
This paper examines the portfolio choice of savings and loan associations (SLAS) between mortgages and bonds, first in a certainty world and then under uncertainty. Differences in servicing and transactions costs, in default losses, in tax treatment and in the timing of payments are accounted for in a certain world. SLAs are seen as investing in bonds only if the demand for mortgage funds is sufficiently weak that more profitable SLAs compete away some of the value of their tax preference by bidding down mortgage rates; in this case less profitable SLAs would find corporate debt attractive. In an uncertain world, mortgages will command a premium over bonds to compensate for the prepayment option extended mortgage borrowers. The appropriate value of this premium depends on uncertainty regar...

Published: Hendershott, Patric H. and Villani, Kevin E. "Savings and Loan Usage of the Authority to Invest in Corporate Debt." Savings and Loan Asset Managementunder Deregulation, pp. 149-167. Sixth Annual Conference of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, 1981.

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