NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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11 October 2018

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Bank Performance

Analyzing the effect of negative nominal interest rates on profitability and behavior at 5,100 banks in 27 countries, Jose A. Lopez, Andrew K. Rose, and Mark M. Spiegel find that losses in interest income are almost exactly offset by savings on deposit expenses and gains in non-interest income.

10 October 2018

The Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital:
Evidence from the Golden Age of Upward Mobility

Studying outcomes for children born in the 1920s,David Card, Ciprian Domnisoru, and Lowell Taylor show that educational attainment was higher in places with higher teacher wages and better schools, and that this particularly impacted black children in the South, suggesting school quality played a causal role in constraining their upward mobility.

9 October 2018

Effects of Multinational Profit Shifting of National Income

Adjusting for profit shifting to low-tax countries raises measured U.S. GDP in 2014 by 1.5 percent, leads to a 3.5 percent increase in operating surplus, and generates a 33.5 percent decrease in measured income receivable from the rest of world, a study by Jennifer Bruner, Dylan G. Rassier, and Kim J. Ruhl finds.

5 October 2018

Mergers and Marginal Costs:
New Evidence on Hospital Buyer Power

While marginal cost efficiencies are a ubiquitous justification for hospital mergers, Stuart Craig, Matthew Grennan, and Ashley Swanson find that hospitals that are the targets of mergers save on average just 1.5 percent annually after the merger. They find mixed evidence on savings by acquirers.

4 October 2018

Take Two! SAT Retaking and College Enrollment Gaps

Only half of SAT-takers retake the exam, with lower retake rates among low income and underrepresented minority students, even though retaking once improves admissions-relevant SAT scores by 0.3 standard deviations on average and substantially increases four-year college enrollment those groups, according to an analysis by Joshua Goodman, Oded Gurantz, and Jonathan Smith.

3 October 2018

Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding

Based on an intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory, Klaus Desmet, Robert E. Kopp, Scott A. Kulp, Dávid Krisztián Nagy, Michael Oppenheimer, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, and Benjamin H. Strauss estimate that permanent flooding will reduce global real GDP by an average of 0.19 percent a year in present value terms over the next 200 years.

2 October 2018

Machine Translation a Boon to International Trade

The introduction of a machine translation system increased international trade by 17.5 percent on a digital platform studied by Erik Brynjolfsson, Xiang Hui, and Meng Liu, providing evidence of the positive economic effects of artificial intelligence.

1 October 2018

The Evolution of Longevity: Evidence from Canada

A study by Kevin Milligan and Tammy Schirle finds a steep earnings-longevity gradient in Canada, with men in the top 11 percent of the earnings distribution living eight years longer than those in the bottom 11 percent. For women, the difference is 3.6 years.

28 September 2018

Household Underdiversification and Probability Weighting

On average, individual investors overweight the likelihood of low-probability “tail events” in making investment decisions. This results in portfolio under-diversification and significant reductions in their portfolios’ Sharpe ratios, a measure of return-for-risk, Stephen G. Dimmock, Roy Kouwenberg, Olivia S. Mitchell, and Kim Peijnenburg find.

27 September 2018

Underemployment in the U.S. and Europe

Although the unemployment rate has returned to the levels that preceded the global financial crisis in many advanced countries, underemployment in most has not, according to David N.F. Bell and David G. Blanchflower. They provide evidence that underemployment has been a significant drag on wage growth in the last decade.
 
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