NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

17 April 2018

Trade Agreements Reduce Policy Uncertainty

Uncertainty played a significant role in the trade collapse during the 2008 crisis and subsequent partial recovery. It could have been mitigated by trade agreements, according to Jeronimo Carballo, Kyle Handley, and Nuno Limão. U.S. exports to non-preferential markets would have been 6.5 percent higher had such agreements been in place.

16 April 2018

Taxing Hidden Wealth: The Consequences
of U.S. Enforcement Action on Evasive Foreign Accounts

Efforts initiated by the IRS in 2008 to curb the use of offshore accounts to evade taxes caused approximately 60,000 individuals to disclose offshore accounts with a combined value of around $120 billion, Niels Johannesen, Patrick Langetieg, Daniel Reck, Max Risch, and Joel Slemrod report, increasing tax revenues by between $700 million and $1 billion.

13 April 2018

Stress Tests and Small Business Lending

Post-crisis stress tests have altered — but not reduced — banks’ credit supply to small business, Kristle Cortés, Yuliya Demyanyk, Lei Li, Elena Loutskina, and Philip E. Strahan find. Banks affected by stress tests reduce credit supply and pull back on small business loans, but small banks increase their share in geographies formerly reliant on stress-tested lenders.

12 April 2018

Computerizing Industries and Routinizing Jobs:
Exploring Trends in Aggregate Productivity

Analyzing the recent slowdown in aggregate productivity growth in the U.S., Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, and Yongseok Shin find that shrinkage of occupations with above-average productivity growth through “routinization” was has been occurring since the 1980s. It was countervailed by extraordinarily high productivity growth in the computer industry through the 1990s.

11 April 2018

Gender Interaction and Gender Beliefs

Randomly assigning female military recruits to some traditionally all-male squads in Norwegian military boot camp,Gordon Dahl, Andreas Kotsadam, and Dan-Olof Rooth find that living and working with women causes an 8 percentage point increase in the share of men who think housework should be shared equally and no evidence that it hurts male recruits' satisfaction with camp or plans to continue in the military.

10 April 2018

The Impact of Education on Family Formation

Extension of the compulsory schooling age from 15 to 16 in 1972 in the United Kingdom was associated with substantially lower teen fertility rates, but had no impacts on abortions or fertility by age 45, a study by Michael Geruso and Heather Royer shows.

9 April 2018

The Optimal Inflation Target
and the Natural Rate of Interest

When the steady-state real interest rate declines, the optimal inflation rate rises, but not one-for-one, according to Philippe Andrade, Jordi Galí, Hervé Le Bihan, and Julien Matheron.

6 April 2018

Taxpayers Aligned with a President's Party Cheat Less

Reported taxable income increases as the voters in a county become more aligned with the party of the president, Julie Berry Cullen, Nicholas Turner, and Ebonya L. Washington find. The increases are concentrated in income sources that are easily evaded due to lack of third-party reporting.

5 April 2018

On the Divergence between CPI and PPI
as Inflation Gauges: The Role of Supply Chains

Shang-Jin Wei and Yinxi Xie find that the consumer price index and producer price index have diverged as inflation gauges, in large part because of the growing length of global production chains.

4 April 2018

Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?

Using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, Kasey Buckles, Daniel Hungerman, and Steven Lugauer show that in the last few recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions fell several quarters prior to the decline in economic activity.
 
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