NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

17 October 2017

Inter-State Diversion of Recreational Marijuana

Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber measure cross-state-border purchases of marijuana by studying sales in Washington state, where marijuana was legal, before and after Oregon legalized sales in 2015. In-Washington sales along the Oregon border dropped 41 percent; there were no changes in sales along Washington’s borders with Idaho and Canada.

16 October 2017

Public Insurance Increases Prescription
of Psychotropic Medications for Mental Illness

Recent eligibility expansions within Medicaid increased psychotropic prescriptions for mental illnesses by 22 percent, Johanna Catherine Maclean, Benjamin L. Cook, Nicholas Carson, and Michael F. Pesko find.

13 October 2017

The U.S. Treasury Premium

The “U.S. Treasury Premium” — the gap between the FX swap-implied dollar yield paid by foreign governments and the U.S. Treasury dollar yield — was approximately 21 basis points for five-year bonds prior to the global financial crisis, increased to 90 basis points during the crisis, and has since disappeared, with the post-crisis mean at -8 basis points, according to calculations by Wenxin Du, Joanne Im, and Jesse Schreger.

12 October 2017

Management, Supervision, and Health Care

Results of a randomized field experiment in 80 primary health care centers in Nigeria indicate that sustained supervision is crucial for achieving persistent managerial improvements. Felipe A. Dunsch, David K. Evans, Ezinne Eze-Ajoku, and Mario Macis report that centers which received a detailed improvement plan and nine months of implementation support saw significant improvements but that virtually no effects remained one year later.

11 October 2017

Credit Growth and the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative

An analysis by Stefania Albanesi, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jaromir Nosal shows that credit growth between 2001 and 2007 was not concentrated in the subprime sector. Rather, the rise in mortgage defaults during the crisis was concentrated in the middle of the credit score distribution, and mostly attributable to real estate investors.

10 October 2017

Slicing the Pie: Quantifying Aggregate
and Distributional Effects of the China Shock

Using the structural relationship between changes in manufacturing employment associated with rising trade with China and average earnings across U.S. groups, Simon Galle, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, and Moises Yi find that the “China shock” increases average welfare. For some groups, however, losses are as high as five times the average gain.

6 October 2017

The Impact of Price Caps and Spending Cuts
on U.S. Postsecondary Attainment

Spending taxpayer dollars improving the quality of the college experience is more effective than spending them to lower tuition prices in increasing postsecondary attainment, a study by David J. Deming and Christopher R. Walters shows. They find large enrollment and degree-completion impacts from funding improvements, and no impact from lowering prices.

5 October 2017

Racial Differences in Income Shares,
Income Inequality, and Income Mobility

Whites and Asians are over-represented in the top income quantiles, according to an analysis of tax and census data by Randall Akee, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter. Income for most other racial groups ranges from 50 to 80 percent of corresponding white income across the overall income distribution.

4 October 2017

Factors that Affect Social Security Claiming

While for many individuals there are large gains in lifetime wealth from delaying the claiming Social Security, most claim at or before full retirement age. A nationally representative survey fielded byJohn B. Shoven, Sita Nataraj Slavov, and David A. Wise finds the most common reasons for early claiming are stopping work, liquidity needs, poor health, and concerns about future benefit cuts due to policy changes.

3 October 2017

Self-Control and Demand for Preventive Health:
Evidence from Hypertension in India

Offering consumers commitment devices is commonly proposed to encourage investment in preventive health care in low-income countries, but in a field experiment in India, Liang Bai, Benjamin Handel, Edward Miguel, and Gautam Rao find that they do not affect doctor visits or individual health outcomes. Many individuals pay for commitments but fail to follow through, losing money without experiencing any health benefit.
 
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