NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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William D. Nordhaus and Paul N. Romer Win Nobel Prize
for Work on Innovation, Climate, and Economic Growth

            William D. Nordhaus
                   Paul N. Romer
William D. Nordhaus of Yale University and Paul N. Romer of New York University, both of whom have been NBER research associates for more than three decades, were awarded the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. The prize recognizes their contributions to the economic analysis of long-term growth, in particular Nordhaus’ work on the interaction between economic growth and global climate, and Romer’s work on the way market forces affect the rate of innovation and technical change.

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New NBER Research

15 October 2018

The Effect of Own-Gender Juries on Conviction Rates

Own-gender juries result in significantly lower conviction rates on drug charges, Mark Hoekstra and Brittany Street find. They detect no evidence of this effect on other charges.

12 October 2018

What Individual Investors Say Matters to Them

Individual investors tend to believe that past mutual fund performance signals stock-picking skill, that value stocks are safer and do not have higher expected returns, and that high-momentum stocks are riskier and have higher expected returns, a survey by James J. Choi and Adriana Z. Robertson finds.

11 October 2018

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Bank Performance

Analyzing the effect of negative nominal interest rates on profitability and behavior at 5,100 banks in 27 countries, Jose A. Lopez, Andrew K. Rose, and Mark M. Spiegel find that losses in interest income are almost exactly offset by savings on deposit expenses and gains in non-interest income.
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Big Data and High-Performance Computing
Deepening the Study of Financial Economics


Over the last decade, researchers have gained access to datasets on transactions in financial markets that make it possible to study market mechanisms in more detail, and at higher resolution, than ever before. Because these data sets are often far larger than those traditionally used by financial economists, analyzing them requires new strategies for data management and analysis. The advent of high-performance computing facilitates research using these datasets. With support from the National Center for Supercomputing Applications, the NBER convened a meeting in July at which researchers discussed potential uses of the new data resources, loosely called "big data," and experts on supercomputing provided an overview of available tools and resources.

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The NBER Digest

Consolidation of Hospitals Produces Scant Savings
in the Cost of Medical Supplies and Equipment




Reduced costs are often cited as a justification for hospital mergers, but research summarized in the latest edition of The NBER Digest finds no evidence of overall cost savings on supplies and equipment at acquiring hospitals and just 1.5 percent savings at hospitals that were merger targets. Also in this issue of the monthly Digest are summaries of research analyzing the lingering effects of the crack crisis, calculating the influence of probability weighting on household investment decisions, comparing the competitiveness of markets in the United States and the EU, and measuring the growth in Chinese research, and examining the effect of pride in national sports teams on ethnic tensions in African countries.

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The NBER Reporter

Raghuram Rajan Analyzes the Role of Liquidity
in the Markets during the 2007–09 Financial Crisis


Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago and NBER, a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, analyzes the 2007–09 financial crisis through a consideration of reactions to either excess or insufficient liquidity in the markets in the lead article of the fall issue of The NBER Reporter. Also in this edition, NBER researchers write about their work exploring unintended consequences of energy and environmental policy, the ways in which taxation affects innovation and innovators, the economics of drug development, and what really happened when the housing market collapsed.

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The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health

The Lifetime Medical Spending of Retirees
Evolves In Counterintuitive Ways as They Age




Properly estimating a household's lifetime medical costs is an essential element of financial retirement planning. A study summarized in the current edition of the NBER's Bulletin on Aging and Health documents the medical history of retirees over a 20 year period and finds that in many cases total future medical expenses actually rise with age until around age 90, even though the subjects have less time to live. Also in this edition of the Bulletin on Aging and Health: A historical exploration of the male-female life expectancy gap, and a glimpse into the cutting edge application of machine learning in the field of healthcare.

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