NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH



Olivier Blanchard, Veteran International Economist,
Sees Gradual Return to a 'More Normal' Environment



The legacies of the financial crisis and lowered expectations of future growth have slowed the pace of recovery from the Great Recession, but the wounds are healing, Olivier Blanchard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the NBER told participants in the 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. Blanchard, formerly chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said he expects to see interest rates return to more normal levels and central banks to slowly lighten their balance sheets as the recovery continues. A video of his full presentation is on the macroeconomic conference web page.
New NBER Research

23 May 2017

The Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health:
Evidence from the Vietnam Draft

Analyzing the later-life health impact of stress during adolescence and early adulthood, John Cawley, Damien de Walque, and Daniel Grossman find that a 10 percentage point increase in induction risk for young adults during the Vietnam War is associated with an 8 percent increase in the probability of being obese and a 10 percent increase in the probability of being in fair or poor health later in life.

22 May 2017

China's GDP Growth May be Understated

Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy, and Xavier Sala-i-Martin use data on satellite-recorded nighttime lights in China to compute Chinese growth rates. They reject the hypothesis that the Chinese economy contracted precipitously in late 2015, and conclude that the rate of Chinese growth is higher than reported in the official statistics.

19 May 2017

Tradability and the Labor-Market Impact of Immigration

A local influx of immigrants crowds out native-born workers in relatively immigrant-intensive jobs whose outputs are not tradable internationally, but has no such effect within occupations that produce tradable goods or services, a study by Ariel Burstein, Gordon Hanson, Lin Tian, and Jonathan Vogel finds.
More Research

New in the NBER Reporter

Behavioral Economics Striving to Understand
Individual Decision-Making among Students




The emerging field of behavioral economics attempts to integrate research in psychology and sociology to better understand decision-making by individual students, a topic which received comparatively little attention in earlier studies of the economics of education. A summary of work in this field is featured in the latest edition of The NBER Reporter. Also in this issue of the quarterly Reporter, leading economists summarize their work on the dynamics of innovation, the impact of contracting out Medicare and Medicaid, macroeconomic policy at the zero lower bound, and developments in corporate finance.

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New in the NBER Digest

Falling Labor Share and Rising Profits Lead
to a Global Rise in Corporate Savings




Since 1980, the global corporate sector has increased its saving rate and switched from being a net borrower to being a net lender to the rest of the economy, according to research reported in the May edition of The NBER Digest. Also featured in this month’s Digest are an examination of the impact on startup firms of successful patenting, evidence that single women may downplay professional ambitions to enhance marriageability, an effort to measure the impact of robots on local job markets, analysis of early impacts of the Affordable Care Act, and a comparison of development paths in East Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

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Just Out: Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 31


Volume 31 of the NBER's Tax Policy and the Economy series, just published by The University of Chicago Press contains papers on long-standing issues, including how transfer programs affect tax rates and behavior. Alan Auerbach, Laurence Kotlikoff, Darryl Koehler, and Manni Yu take a lifetime perspective on the marginal tax rates facing older individuals and families. Gizem Kosar and Robert A. Moffitt provide new estimates of the cumulative marginal rates facing low-income families over 1997-2007. Emmanuel Saez presents evidence on the elasticity of taxable income with respect to tax rates. Conor Clarke and Wojciech Kopczuk survey the treatment of business income taxation in the United States since the 1950s. Louis Kaplow argues that the reduction in statutory tax rates from base-broadening may not reduce effective marginal tax rates on households. Edited by Robert A. Moffitt.

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