Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic
Outcomes Since the Financial Crisis

Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes Since the Financial Crisis

What tools are available to central banks to guide markets when interest rates are near zero? Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago presented research into two types of forward guidance at the NBER's 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics, held April 15-16. Conference presentations and interviews with the researchers will be posted here over the next five weeks.

2016 NBER Macroeconomics Conference Program with downloadable papers, videos of presentations and interviews with researchers

New NBER Research

29 April 2016

Faculty Preferences over Unionization:
Evidence from Two Research Universities

Faculty with higher pay and greater research productivity are less supportive of unionization, a study by Joel Waldfogel finds. After accounting for pay and productivity, faculty in fields that are documented elsewhere to have more politically liberal participants are also more likely to support unionization.

28 April 2016

Real Effects of Liquidity during the Financial Crisis:
Evidence from Automobile Sales

The decline in auto sales during the financial crisis was caused in part by a reduction in the available credit from the most important providers of consumer finance in the auto loan market, a study by Efraim Benmelech, Ralf R. Meisenzahl, and Rodney Ramcharan finds. The researchers conclude that interventions in short-term credit markets might have helped contain the real effects of the crisis.

27 April 2016

Uninformative Feedback and Risk Taking:
Evidence from Retail Forex Trading

Retail day traders in the Forex market, especially novice traders, attribute random success to their own skill and, as a consequence, increase risk-taking, Itzhak Ben-David, Justin Birru, and Viktor Prokopenya show. Although past performance does not predict future success for these traders, they increase their trade size dramatically following winning weeks.
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Innovation Policy and the Economy

The 16th volume of Innovation Policy and the Economy offers insights into the changing landscape of innovation by highlighting recent developments in the financing of innovation and entrepreneurship and in the economics of innovation and intellectual property. Edited by Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern; published by The University of Chicago Press.

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Wide Variety of Analyses, Multiple Perspectives

... in Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 29

From an estimate of how much the federal government could raise by limiting tax expenditures, to an analysis of whether tax credits have a significant causal effect on college attendance and related outcomes, to the impact of the Affordable Care Act on taxes on income and on full-time employment, the 29th volume of Tax Policy and the Economy illustrates the depth and breadth of taxation-related research by NBER associates. The book, edited by Jeffrey R. Brown, is just out from The University of Chicago Press.

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This Week's Working Papers

New in the NBER Digest

Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection
in the Choice of Health Insurance Plans

When insured individuals bear a smaller share of their medical care costs, they are likely to consume more care, and those who are likely to require care tend to choose more generous plans. What motivated the choices of employees of a large manufacturer is the subject of a study summarized in the current issue of the monthly NBER Digest. Also in the April Digest are inquiries into hiring practices, the impact of early female jurors on criminal cases, the capacity to work at older ages, CEO pay, and the relationship between patent approval and startup growth.

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New in the NBER Reporter

Reviewing International Trade and Investment Research

Chinese imports play a dual role for the United States: On the one hand, they create import competition with associated labor market dislocation; on the other, they benefit U.S. consumers. Robert C. Feenstra reports on the latest research in a review of the NBER’s International Trade and Investment Program in a new edition of the quarterly NBER Reporter.

Bulletin on Aging and Health

Health Care Spending of the Elderly

The federal government pays for two-thirds of health care spending by the elderly, with Medicare accounting for 55 percent, Medicaid for 10 percent, and other government programs for 3 percent, according to a working paper summarized in the latest NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health. Nearly 20 percent of the medical spending of the elderly is financed out-of-pocket, while 13 percent is covered by private insurance.

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Disability Insurance Programs and Retirement

Vol. 6 in Series on Social Security Around World

Disability insurance programs can play a significant role in the departure of older workers; in some countries, many individuals rely on disability insurance until they are able to enter into full retirement. The sixth stage of an ongoing research project studying the relationship between social security programs and labor force participation, this volume draws on the work of an eminent group of international economists to consider the extent to which differences in labor force participation across countries are determined by the provisions of disability insurance programs. Edited by David A. Wise; published by The University of Chicago Press.

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